August 2026 North Texas Market Report: Home Prices Went Up & Home Sales Went Down

By Bobby Franklin, REALTOR® | North Texas Market Insider™ | Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team | TREC #0805459 | Serving Dallas-Fort Worth, Ellis County & Greater North Texas | 214-228-0003 | Published September 12, 2026

---

Before the August Numbers, Here Is Where You Are Standing Today

Yesterday morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index, and it came in hotter than originally forecast. Headline inflation rose 0.4% for the month and 3.4% year over year against an expected 3.3%, with gasoline alone accounting for a third of the monthly increase and running 27.4% above last year. Core inflation, the number the Federal Reserve actually anchors to, rose 0.3% against an expected 0.2%, an acceleration from July.

CBS News reported that economists now consider a September rate hike all but guaranteed, which would be the Federal Reserve’s first increase since 2023. Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic said the renewed surge in higher oil, gasoline, and diesel prices adds to concerns that energy could spill into other goods and services, and that her firm now expects a quarter point increase at next week’s meeting.

Mortgage rates followed. Zillow’s lender marketplace put the 30-year fixed at 6.83% Friday up 19 basis points in a single day, and NerdWallet’s daily tracker headlined it simply as just below 7%. Points-adjusted daily pricing had already touched 7.07% earlier in the week. The 10-year Treasury jumped ten basis points to 4.979%.

One detail from that CPI report deserves to stop you. The August inflation data was collected before the worst of the oil spike. Brent crossed $100 and diesel broke $6 a gallon for the first time in history after the survey period closed. Whatever pressure you see in these numbers, September has more of it queued up.

So read everything below knowing that the Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, that a hike is the expected outcome, and that the rate your buyer gets quoted today starts with a seven far more often than it did thirty days ago.

Now, August.

---

Everybody Stopped Supplying at the Same Time

Closed sales across Dallas-Fort Worth fell 16.6% from July and 9.0% from a year ago in August. Average sold prices went up.

That combination breaks most people’s model of how housing works, and the explanation circulating locally is wrong in a way that will cost sellers money this fall. This was not buyers returning and it definitely wasn’t builders finding pricing power.

New resale listings across the metroplex fell 19.5% from July.(NTREIS, MLS) Sellers, staring at the highest mortgage rates of the year, simply declined to list.

When supply withdraws faster than demand fades, inventory tightens and prices firm even as transaction volume collapses. That is the entire August story, and once you see it you see it everywhere, because sellers were not the only ones who stopped supplying.

Builders pulled back too. New construction listings fell 14.5% and builders cut list prices 4.7% after two months of increases. On top of this, the state of Texas froze the pipeline behind the single largest source of new commercial investment in Ellis County.

Three different actors, three different motives, one behavior. August was the month North Texas stopped putting things on the market. Everything below follows from that, including the part where it reverses.

---

What the Withdrawal Looked Like

The most credible confirmation comes from outside the brokerage world. The Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M reported that active listings and months of supply were lower than a year ago in Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, while Houston and San Antonio posted year-over-year gains in both measures. It also noted that new listing activity in DFW trailed year-ago levels.

A university research center and the MLS data agree: our supply contracted while other Texas metros built theirs.

Source: NTREIS data compiled as of August 31, 2026. These are Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex aggregates using averages rather than medians. Ellis County and city-level figures update on my live DFW market data page, and a single city can diverge sharply from the metro number.

---

The Price Number Depends Entirely on Which One You Read

My table shows average sold price up 5.4% year over year. That is accurate and it is one of three answers available for the same question.

Redfin’s data for the City of Dallas across the three months ending in August shows a median sale price of $449,000, essentially flat year over year at down 0.066%, with 2,681 homes sold against 2,758 a year earlier.

The Texas Real Estate Research Center, meanwhile, reports statewide home prices running below year-ago levels for thirteen consecutive months through June, though it notes preliminary July data suggests prices are stabilizing.

Average versus median explains part of that spread. Metro versus city versus statewide explains more. But if I hand you only the 5.4% gain and let you list accordingly, I have done you a disservice.

The defensible read is that North Texas prices are flat to modestly firming while transaction volume falls meaningfully. Anyone quoting you a confident appreciation number in this market is picking the series that supports their pitch.

And here is the number that governs your listing decision regardless of which price series you believe: sellers closed at 94.5% of original list after 58 days. In July, that was 96.8% after 30 days. Pricing power belonged to the market’s supply condition, not to individual sellers, and individual sellers gave up more ground in August than they did in July.

---

Builders Withdrew Too, and One of Them Told You Why

The new construction column is the same behavior from a different actor, and the tell is in the list price.

Builders eased asking prices 4.7% in August after two straight months of increases, while sold prices barely moved. They cut, and the market did not reward them with volume. New construction is sitting 79 days against resale’s 58 and closing at 94.1% of original list, with a gap between list and sold running roughly $90,000 across the metroplex.

Nationally, the NAHB Housing Market Index registered 35 in August with 35% of builders cutting prices, an average reduction of 6%, and 63% offering incentives. Buyer traffic sat at 23, which is a deeply weak reading.

The most revealing disclosure came from D.R. Horton, the largest builder in the country and a significant presence across our corridor. In recent quarterly reporting, the company disclosed that roughly 73% of its closings involved some form of rate buydown and that adjustable rate mortgages had grown to roughly 10% of its mortgage company closings from essentially zero a year earlier.

Then there is the land, and this is where the strategy gets interesting. As of December 31, 2025, D.R. Horton reported a homebuilding lot position of roughly 590,500 lots, with only 25% owned outright and 75% controlled through purchase contracts, adding that it is actively managing its investments in lots, land, and development based on current market conditions. That sentence is doing more work than it appears to.

A builder that owns land is committed to it. Buy 200 acres and the dirt sits on your balance sheet accruing carrying costs whether the market cooperates or not, which is precisely how so many builders went belly-up in 2008. An option contract inverts that. Horton pays a deposit, usually a small single-digit percentage of the lot price, for the contractual right to buy those lots later at a set price on a set schedule. A land developer owns the ground and carries the expense. Horton takes down lots only as it needs them, and if demand disappears it simply stops taking them down and forfeits the deposit. The developer is then left holding the land.

At 75% optioned, that is roughly 443,000 lots the largest homebuilder in America can abandon for a fraction of their value. It is worth noting that Horton majority-owns Forestar, a residential lot developer it buys heavily from, so some of that flexibility amounts to moving risk between pockets it also owns. Still, the posture is unmistakable: a company that has structured itself to retreat quickly is a company that sees a reason it might need to.

Here is the part that should change how you shop. A builder with optioned land can slow future construction almost overnight. It cannot un-build a finished house already standing on a lot. Those homes are sunk cost that has to clear, which is exactly why the incentives on a completed spec are aggressive while the incentives on a build starting next quarter are not. If you are touring new construction anywhere across South DFW, the leverage is in the finished inventory. Ask for the rate buydown, the closing cost contribution, and the design center allowance in the same conversation, and ask on a house that already exists.

---

The State Stopped Supplying Too

In August the withdrawal pattern reached Ellis County from an unexpected direction.

On August 3, Governor Abbott ordered a freeze on new data center grid interconnections statewide pending a comprehensive audit. The queue behind that freeze runs roughly 1,800 requests totaling about 474 gigawatts, approximately 90% attributable to data centers, which exceeds five times the all-time record demand on the entire Texas grid. ERCOT and the Public Utility Commission are running the audit with a report due December 10, 2026.

Projects already financed and under construction will continue. DataBank publicly welcomed the audit in mid-August and stated it meets the requirements, with its Red Oak facility expected online during the month. The freeze targets new approvals.

The local friction escalated in parallel. After Red Oak City Council approved the 830-acre Compass Datacenters rezoning on a 4 to 1 vote, overriding its own Planning and Zoning Commission, residents filed suit against the city and council. An opposition group organized as Save Our Red Oak retained counsel funded partly through community fundraisers, and Compass had already withdrawn a county tax abatement request in June under public pressure.

Two dates belong on your calendar. December 10 brings the ERCOT audit report, which determines what happens to the pipeline. November 3 is a confirmed General and Special Election in Ellis County, with early voting October 19 through 30.

One practical note if you view properties in the corridor: TxDOT is running a continuous closure and detour on I-35E between Ovilla Road and Bear Creek Road through late 2026 to reconstruct the interchange and connect to Loop 9 Segment B. Build it into your drive times.

The largest residential project in Waxahachie history remains on track. I covered the Minto Communities master plan at approval, roughly 3,170 acres and up to 13,270 dwelling units, with development expected to begin in late 2026. I track every verifiable data center project on the DFW Data Center Intelligence Map.

---

Somebody Finally Studied Whether Data Centers Hurt Home Values

This is the most common question I field at listing appointments in Red Oak and Midlothian, and until this month the honest answer was that nobody had run it at scale.

On September 8 the National Association of REALTORS® published its 2026 Data Center Impact Report, covering more than 3,200 counties plus a survey of 2,357 agents. The findings deserve to be reported accurately rather than spun, including the parts that cut against my own position.

The county-level correlations look favorable. Counties with ten or more data centers show median home values of $431,750 against $174,500 in counties without, median household incomes of $89,000 against $64,000, and home value growth of 95% over the past decade against 64%.

And NAR explicitly warns you not to read that the way it looks. The report cautions that correlation is not causation, and states that in high-concentration counties the higher median price and stronger growth are not necessarily driven by the presence of data centers, because those counties were already high-income, highly educated technology hubs before the recent surge in facilities. Loudoun and Prince William counties in Northern Virginia alone account for roughly 19% of all mapped data centers nationally, and those were expensive places before anyone built a server farm there.

I am the agent whose territory is being built on. Quoting the favorable correlation without NAR’s own warning would be exactly the kind of thing that should cost me your trust.

Three more findings matter for Ellis County.

Job growth has nearly stopped in mature markets. The 16% employment growth figure covers 2014 through 2024. From 2024 to 2026, those same high-concentration counties saw median employment growth of roughly 0.6%. Every tax abatement argument in this county rests on job creation, and the national dataset says mature data center markets are adding almost none.

Electricity costs rose faster. Residential rates climbed 21.4% between 2020 and 2024 in high-concentration counties against 15.7% elsewhere. Among agents reporting negative perceptions, 61% cited energy costs, with water use second.

The commercial picture is the clear good news. Half of surveyed agents reported increased nearby commercial property values and 42% reported increased demand for nearby commercial space, with CBRE’s head of industrial research calling the effect on nearby industrial space mostly positive. If you own commercial or industrial ground along I-35E, that is your finding.

Agent perception on residential values split almost evenly, 25% positive and 22% negative. NAR does not currently hold an official policy position on data centers.

So what do I tell a seller in Red Oak? County data shows no systemic drag and possibly a lift, county data explicitly cannot price the house across the street from a specific facility, and the jobs case is weaker than the abatement hearings suggest. Anyone confident in either direction is going past the evidence. If you are weighing a purchase near a campus, I wrote a longer piece on what living near an AI data center in North Texas actually involves.

---

The Thing I Got Wrong in July, and the Finding It Produced

I told you in July I would watch four numbers. I went 1 for 4, and the biggest miss taught me something worth more than the three I would have hit.

I said to watch for the 10-year Treasury to break below 4.5% and pull mortgages toward the low sixes. It finished August at 4.73% and has since climbed to roughly 4.98%.

My July thesis was that rates now fall on bad economic news, because the bond market reacts to weakness by bidding Treasuries up and yields down. August delivered bad news in volume. Oil spiked, a shooting conflict escalated, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Rates rose anyway.

Here is the distinction I failed to draw, and it is the single most useful thing in this report.

A demand-side growth scare lowers rates. A supply-side inflation shock raises them. When the economy weakens, bond buyers expect less inflation and accept lower yields. When a war disrupts energy supply, bond buyers expect more inflation and demand higher yields. Both look like bad news on a headline but they transmit through the bond market in opposite directions.

That is why the same client question, will bad news bring rates down, has two different answers depending on what kind of bad news arrives. It is also why yesterday’s CPI, which was driven substantially by gasoline, pushed rate expectations up rather than down.

On the other three markers: Brent crude did break $100, though in early September rather than August, after averaging $91 per barrel in August per the Energy Information Administration. The September Federal Reserve meeting flipped from a near 70% probability of a hold to a likely hike after Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and yesterday’s inflation print. North Texas resale inventory approached the six month line before retreating to 5.85, which is the withdrawal story again.

For the record on rates within August itself, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey eased to 6.65% for the week ending August 20 after two consecutive declines before climbing back to 6.76% by September 10. Buyers got a small window in August and now it’s closed.

---

Was August a Pause or a Pattern? Here Is My Call.

Every report you read will note that the withdrawal can reverse and leave it there. I am going to take the position, because that is what you are here for.

August was a pause, and it breaks in the spring.

Three reasons.

The sellers who withdrew did not lose their reason for moving. Job changes, divorces, new babies, aging parents, and retirements do not respond to mortgage rates. They respond to time. Every month a seller sits out, the pressure behind their move builds rather than dissipates.

Withdrawal is a strategy with a shelf life. A seller who pulled a listing in August is paying carrying costs on a house they have already decided to leave, and the tolerance for that runs about two quarters in my experience before the math stops working.

And the trigger is predictable. Sellers pulled back because rates hit yearly highs. Any meaningful move down, whether it comes from the Iran conflict resolving, from labor weakness, or from the Fed eventually easing, brings that inventory back. All at once, because everyone is watching the same number.

I could be wrong about this in one specific way, and it is worth naming. If rates keep climbing through the fall rather than stabilizing, the withdrawal could deepen into a genuine supply freeze where sellers with sub-5% mortgages simply refuse to move for years. That is the lock-in effect, it is real, and a Fed hiking cycle makes it worse rather than better.

But my read is that the August withdrawal was tactical rather than structural, and tactical decisions unwind faster.

---

What I Would Actually Tell You

If you are selling, you have a window and it is not permanent.

Right now you are competing against fewer listings than you will face in March, because a meaningful share of your competition withdrew in August rather than compete at current rates. Those sellers have not disappeared. They are sitting in houses they have already decided to leave, and they return on the same signal you would respond to, which means they return together.

Listing into thin inventory and listing into a spring surge are different competitive environments, and the difference shows up in your final number, not just your timeline.

That said, the trap in this month’s data is real. Average sold prices rose, and if you read only that number you will list high and learn expensively. The governing figure is 94.5% of original list after 58 days, softer than July on both counts. Sellers hitting the top of that range priced to current comps on day one. Run your address through our days on market calculator before you pick a number, and pair it with our pricing strategy guide and the preparation checklist.

If you are buying, shop standing inventory and negotiate hard.

The leverage is on the builder side and it is concentrated in homes that already exist. A $90,000 average gap between new construction list and sold price, 79 days of sitting inventory, 73% of the largest builder’s closings involving a rate buydown, and a builder holding three quarters of its lots on options it can abandon. That is a party motivated to clear finished product.

What you should not do is wait for a rate rescue. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday with a hike as the expected outcome, and the forces pushing long-term yields up are not the kind that reverse on one policy decision.

For anyone relocating, the payment math still works dramatically better here than most of the country, and my California to Texas relocation guide runs the full comparison. If you are not sure which community fits, start at the Explore North Texas hub.

---

What I Am Watching Into October

The September 16 Federal Reserve decision and dot plot. The hike is largely priced in. The dot plot, showing where officials expect rates through year end, is not.

Whether new listings rebound or stay suppressed. This is the direct test of my pause-versus-pattern call. If September listings recover, I was right. If they fall again, the lock-in argument gains ground.

Whether the 10-year Treasury holds above 4.75%. I was wrong about its direction in July, so I am watching the level rather than predicting it.

The December 10 ERCOT audit report. It determines what happens to the data center pipeline behind the freeze, and it lands squarely on the corridor I cover.

The full archive of monthly market reports is on the site, and ongoing coverage runs through the Insider Daily News blog.

If you are weighing a move anywhere between Dallas and Waco, call me at 214-228-0003 or schedule a consultation. I will tell you what the data supports, what it does not, and which parts of my read are opinion.

---

Frequently Asked Questions About the August 2026 North Texas Housing Market

Why are home prices going up when home sales are down in Dallas-Fort Worth?
Supply withdrew faster than demand. New resale listings across the metroplex fell 19.5% from July while closed sales fell 16.6%, which tightened months of supply and firmed average prices despite falling volume. This reflects sellers declining to list at current mortgage rates rather than buyers returning, which is why it can reverse quickly.

Are home prices actually rising in North Texas right now?
It depends which measurement you use, and honest reporting requires saying so. NTREIS average sold prices show a 5.4% year-over-year gain. Redfin’s median for the City of Dallas shows essentially flat prices, down 0.066% over the three months ending August. The Texas Real Estate Research Center reports statewide prices below year-ago levels for thirteen consecutive months through June, with preliminary July data suggesting stabilization. The defensible read is flat to modestly firming, not broadly appreciating.

Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market in DFW right now?
Close to balanced, and it varies by segment. Resale inventory sat at 5.85 months with homes closing at 94.5% of original list after 58 days. New construction is more buyer-favorable at 79 days and roughly a $90,000 average gap between list and sold price. Five to six months of supply is generally considered balanced.

How many months of inventory does the DFW housing market have?
Approximately 5.85 months for resale and 4.52 months for new construction as of the end of August 2026. The Texas Real Estate Research Center noted that active listings and months of supply in DFW ran below year-ago levels, while Houston and San Antonio posted increases.

What percentage of asking price are homes selling for in North Texas?
Resale closed at approximately 94.5% of original list in August, an average concession of about 5.5% from the initial asking price. New construction closed at 94.1%. Both softened from July, when resale ran 96.8%.

How long does it take to sell a house in DFW right now?
Median days on market ran 58 days for resale and 79 days for new construction in August. That measures list date to contract, so a financed closing adds roughly 30 to 45 days. Pricing accuracy and presentation compress that timeline more than market conditions do.

Are homebuilders offering incentives in North Texas in 2026?
Yes, aggressively, and the leverage is concentrated in standing inventory. Nationally, 63% of builders reported offering incentives and 35% reported cutting prices at an average 6% reduction per NAHB. D.R. Horton disclosed that roughly 73% of recent closings involved a mortgage rate buydown, and that ARMs had grown to roughly 10% of its mortgage company closings from near zero a year earlier.

Do data centers lower home values in Ellis County?
NAR’s September 2026 research across 3,200 counties found no evidence of weaker housing markets in counties with a large data center presence, with those counties showing higher values and incomes. NAR explicitly cautioned that correlation is not causation, noting those counties were already high-income technology hubs before the facilities arrived, and that county-level data cannot determine what happens to an individual home next to a specific facility. Residential electricity rates rose faster in high-concentration counties, 21.4% against 15.7%, and job growth in those counties slowed to roughly 0.6% between 2024 and 2026.

Will mortgage rates go down after the September 2026 Fed meeting?
A quarter point increase was the expected outcome heading into the September 16 meeting following an August CPI reading of 3.4% that exceeded forecasts. A Federal Reserve hike does not directly set mortgage rates, which track the 10-year Treasury yield, and an expected move is generally already reflected in mortgage pricing before the meeting. The forward-looking projections released alongside the decision typically matter more than the decision itself.

Should I list my house now or wait until spring in North Texas?
My read is now, and here is the reasoning. A meaningful share of your competition withdrew from the market in August rather than compete at current rates. Those sellers still need to move and they return on the same signal you would respond to, which means they return simultaneously. Listing into thin inventory is a materially different competitive position than listing into a spring surge. The counterargument is that if rates keep climbing, buyer demand thins further, and that risk is real. Your equity position, timeline, and how your home shows all factor in, but the general case favors acting before the withdrawal unwinds.

---

Sources, Standards, and Disclosures

This report was researched and written specifically for North Texas Market Insider using original analysis of primary source data and local market knowledge. It is original content, free of plagiarism, and uniquely tailored to my North Texas market coverage.

On the data. Metroplex resale and new construction figures reflect NTREIS data compiled as of August 31, 2026, and are averages rather than medians. They are Dallas-Fort Worth aggregates and individual cities can diverge substantially. Inflation figures come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index program. National housing figures come from the National Association of REALTORS®. Builder sentiment comes from the National Association of Home Builders. Mortgage rate figures come from Freddie Mac and daily lender trackers, which measure different things and are labeled accordingly. Treasury data comes from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Market-implied rate probabilities reflect futures pricing and are not forecasts. Past performance does not predict future results, and my pause-versus-pattern call is opinion clearly labeled as such.

Fair Housing. All references to neighborhoods, schools, and communities are made without regard to race, color, religion, sex, familial status, national origin, or disability, consistent with the Fair Housing Act as administered by HUD. Nothing here should be interpreted as steering. Buyers are encouraged to evaluate any area independently and to consult HUD’s fair housing resources with any concerns.

RESPA. Mortgage and settlement information here is general and is not a substitute for disclosures required under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, Regulation X, administered by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which prohibits kickbacks and undisclosed referral fees between real estate professionals, lenders, and settlement service providers.

Commission and practice standards. Following the 2024 National Association of REALTORS® settlement, buyer agent compensation is fully negotiated in a written buyer representation agreement signed before touring homes, is not published on the MLS, and is not set by law, per NAR’s official settlement guidance. This report does not offer, imply, or advertise any specific commission rate or arrangement.

Advertising and ethics. This content complies with the Texas Real Estate Commission’s advertising rules, including the requirement that broker identification appear at least as prominently as any individual agent or team name, and reflects the NAR Code of Ethics requirement that representations to the public be truthful and not exaggerated, misleading, or based on any unverifiable claim of superiority.

Not financial, legal, or tax advice. I am a licensed Texas REALTOR®, not a mortgage lender, financial advisor, or attorney. Rate and financing decisions should be made with a licensed loan officer reviewing your specific credit profile, down payment, loan type, and property.

Bobby Franklin, REALTOR®, TREC #0805459 | Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team | 16 Northgate Dr. Ste 100, Waxahachie, TX 75165 | 214-228-0003