Apartment Rents Are Falling in DFW, But Not For The House Your Family Actually Needs.

Here is the most misleading headline in North Texas real estate right now: Dallas-Fort Worth rents are dropping.

It is true. It is also nearly useless to you, and if you are a family renting a three-bedroom house in Waxahachie while you wait for something to get cheaper, it may be the most expensive piece of accurate information you read this year.

DFW overbuilt apartments, and that glut is dragging the metro rent average down with it. Nobody overbuilt three-bedroom houses in Ellis County or even North Texas. Meanwhile, the rate line everyone was waiting on did not just stall last week. The Federal Reserve pushed it the wrong direction on purpose.

Let’s put current numbers on all of it.

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The Fed Hiked. Mortgage Rates Crossed 7%.

On September 16, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since July 2023, on a unanimous 12 to 0 vote per the Federal Reserve’s September 16 statement. The Committee described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, inflation as still elevated, and framed the hike as a way to get back to its 2% inflation target sooner.

The part that matters more than the hike itself is what the Fed said about their next vote. The updated dot plot moved the median projection for the end of 2026 up to 4.1%, from 3.8% in June, and raised the 2027 projection to 4.1% from 3.6% according to TD Economics’ breakdown of the projections. Sixteen of the eighteen officials who submitted projections expect at least one more increase as reported by CNBC. Futures markets were pricing roughly 60% odds of another quarter-point hike at the October 28 meeting as of September 20 per CME FedWatch tracking.

Mortgages reacted immediately. The 10-year Treasury touched roughly 5.04% around the decision, its highest level since 2007, and was back near 5.00% by September 18 per Federal Reserve Economic Data. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed averaged 6.95% for the week ending September 17, up from 6.76% the week before, its fourth straight weekly increase, with the 15-year at 6.26% according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Because that survey lags, daily trackers are already showing higher numbers: Mortgage News Daily put the 30-year at 7.20% on September 18 per Mortgage News Daily’s rate index, and Zillow’s daily average was 7.05% per Yahoo Finance’s September 18 rate roundup. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s 30-year contract rate reached 6.97% for the week ending September 11, its highest since May 2025 according to the MBA’s weekly survey.

The forecasters moved too. Fannie Mae and the MBA both cut their outlooks in mid-September and now expect roughly 6.8% by the end of 2026, with Fannie holding near 6.7% through all of 2027 per National Mortgage News. Daily rates are already above those year-end calls, and at least one Wall Street analyst has flagged that the forecasts may need to move higher again next month.

So here is the trade in plain terms. The buyer who closes now and sees rates fall in 2028 refinances into the lower payment and keeps every dollar of equity built in the meantime. The renter who waits until 2028 gets that same rate, on a more expensive house, with two more years of receipts and nothing on the balance sheet. One side of that trade has an exit. The other side does not.

That asymmetry was already the argument before the Fed moved. It’s an even stronger argument now, regardless of the outcome of the next Fed meeting.

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The Apartment Glut Is Real. It Is Not Your Market.

Rents are falling, and the data is not close.

Realtor.com’s August rent report, released September 17, marked the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year declines nationally, with the median asking rent down 0.9% to $1,699 and landlords offering concessions more widely, including across Dallas-Fort Worth per Realtor.com’s monthly rent report. The most recent DFW-specific reading put the metro median asking rent at $1,461 in June, down 2.7% based on Realtor.com’s DFW rent data. RentCafe’s Yardi-sourced Dallas average sat at $1,592 at the end of August, down about 0.9% per RentCafe’s Dallas rent trends. Zumper shows the Dallas median down 8.8% year over year to $1,680 per Zumper’s Dallas rent research.

Different methodologies, same direction. If you want a one-bedroom apartment in Dallas proper, 2026 is a good year to find one.

You will still find agents and property managers claiming double-digit rent growth in DFW submarkets, but check their sources. Every authoritative tracker points the other way, and content that cites the outlier because the outlier is convenient is not market intelligence.

Here is what the decline actually describes. Developers built apartment towers where land economics justified towers: the urban core, the Tollway corridor, the high-density nodes. Those units delivered into the same window and the absorption math broke. Nobody built that product in Ellis County, and a family with two kids and a dog is not shopping for a one-bedroom in Deep Ellum.

In Waxahachie, apartment rent has been roughly flat, with RentCafe showing an average of $1,546, down about 1.8% as of its most recent update via RentCafe’s Waxahachie rent trends. Flat is not falling. Waxahachie did not get the same deep discount the metro average is advertising, mostly because Waxahachie did not get the oversupply that created it.

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The Number That Settles This: $2,277 Against the Breakeven

This is the calculation every renter in Ellis County should run this week.

The shortcut is the 5% rule, developed by Ben Felix at PWL Capital: multiply a home’s value by 6%, divide by 12, and you get a rough monthly breakeven between renting and owning as Felix explains in PWL Capital’s breakdown. The 5% is roughly 1% property tax(add 1 more for Texas), 1% maintenance, and about 3% cost of capital. It compares the unrecoverable costs of each option, which is the fair fight, because after all, part of a mortgage payment is the principal you keep.

Waxahachie’s median depends on whose window you use. Resideline tracked $385,000 across 510 closings over six months per Resideline’s Waxahachie market report. Pax Realty’s MLS-derived data shows $421,000 across 1,166 closings over the trailing twelve months per Pax Realty’s NTREIS-sourced Waxahachie data. Redfin’s most recent three-month window shows $365,000, down 5.2%, at 61 days on market per Redfin’s Waxahachie page, and Zillow’s home value index sits at $373,008 per Zillow.

Run the rule at both ends of that range:

• $385,000 × 6% ÷ 12 = $1,925 per month
• $421,000 × 6% ÷ 12 = $2,105 per month

Now the rent. The median executed lease in Waxahachie over the past year ran $2,277 per month per Pax Realty’s NTREIS lease data. That is MLS-reported leases, which skew toward houses. For three-bedroom apartments, RentCafe shows $2,023, lower but still above either breakeven.

Renting the median Waxahachie lease costs somewhere between $523 and $673 a month more than the ownership breakeven. That is roughly $6,300 to $8,100 a year, and none of it comes back.

One honest caveat, because this argument does not need to be oversold. The rule’s 3% cost-of-capital assumption was built for a normal rate environment. With 30-year money at 7%, the true cost of borrowing is higher, and that narrows the gap for anyone financing at market rates. Which is exactly why the next section matters more than it did a week ago.

Your down payment, credit, timeline, insurance quote, and homestead status all move the answer. Those get sorted in a one-on-one relocation and buyer strategy consultation, not a blog post.

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What the Math Looks Like Across the Metroplex

Waxahachie is one data point. Run the same test on the whole Metroplex and the picture gets closer, which is exactly why it is worth running.

Start with rent. The apartment decline is real, but it has not reached houses. Across the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, three-bedroom rents ticked up 0.2% to $2,100 and single-family rents rose the same 0.2% to $2,200 per Rental Beast’s Q2 2026 Dallas-Fort Worth rental report. Flat, in a market where apartment rents are falling. The relief in the headlines is going to one-bedroom renters in new towers, not to families in three-bedroom houses.

Now the price. The median DFW single-family home fell $9,000 over the past year to $410,000 as of July according to Homes.com’s Dallas-Fort Worth market report.

Run the 5% rule on that median and the ownership breakeven lands at $1,708 a month. That rule assumes 1% property tax, and combined Texas tax rates across much of the Metroplex run well above that before exemptions. Raising the assumption by one point, a North Texas Market Insider estimate you should check against your own tax statement, lifts the breakeven to about $2,050. Push it to 6.5% to reflect 7% borrowing costs and it reaches roughly $2,221.

Line those up against rent and the honest answer is that it is close. At the Texas-adjusted 6%, renting a median single-family home costs about $50 to $150 a month more than owning one. At 6.5%, a three-bedroom rental comes out slightly cheaper and a single-family rental lands about even. Anyone telling you renting across DFW is simply burning money is skipping the tax bill.

You may also see a much wider gap running the other direction. Rental Beast estimates the full monthly cost of owning a median home at roughly $2,945, against $2,100 for a three-bedroom rental. That figure includes principal, which is money moving into your equity rather than out of your life, and it is the same reason your own mortgage payment will look higher than the 5% number when you run the rule on your house. The rule is built to be compared against rent, never against your payment.

So if the unrecoverable costs are close to even, what decides it? The rate. On a $410,000 home with 10% down, principal and interest run about $2,455 a month at 7% and $1,979 at 4.99%, roughly $476 a month apart before taxes and insurance, which are identical either way. Property tax, insurance, and maintenance cost the same no matter who builds the house. The cost of borrowing is the one line a buyer can actually move, through a builder buydown, a seller-funded buydown, or a program rate, and in a market this close it is the line that decides whether owning wins.

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Builders Are Writing 4.99% While the Market Sits Above 7%

Here is the objection I get immediately, and it is fair: fine, but I can’t afford 7%.

Then stop shopping at 7%.

Ellis County is in an active new-construction cycle, and builders holding inventory can do something resale sellers mostly cannot: buy the rate down out of their own margin. Right now that is producing a gap of roughly two full percentage points between builder financing and the daily market rate.

D.R. Horton, Saddlebrook Estates (Waxahachie): 4.99% on a 30-year FHA loan, 5.843% APR, for contracts written on or after May 26 that close by September 30, 2026, plus up to $7,000 in flex cash through September 27, through DHI Mortgage per D.R. Horton’s current Saddlebrook incentive flyer and community page. That close-by date is nine days out. If this rate is going to matter to you, it has to be an inventory home and it has to be now.

John Houston Homes (Levante and Tuscan Estates in Waxahachie; BridgeWater, Redden Farms, and Hayes Crossing in Midlothian): 4.99% fixed, with APRs of 5.106% conventional, 5.825% FHA, and 5.382% VA, plus flex cash of up to $20,000, through Trinity Oaks Mortgage per John Houston Homes’ current promotions. The expiration on the September terms was not available at the time of writing, so confirm this before you plan around it.

To see what two points are worth, take an illustrative $421,000 home with 10% down, a $378,900 loan. At 7.00%, principal and interest run about $2,521 a month. At 4.99%, about $2,032. That is roughly $490 a month, before taxes and insurance, which are the same in both scenarios. Over five years, that is close to $29,000 of payment you did not make.

The catch, stated plainly: builder incentives are tied to the builder’s lender, usually limited to specific inventory homes, sometimes limited to specific loan types, and they change month to month. Using an outside lender generally forfeits any benefits since its often the lender paying for the buydown. Anyone quoting you a blanket builder rate without naming the community, the loan type, and the expiration date is grasping at thin air.

All of this makes the strategic point even sharper. The Fed pushed market rates up. It did not push builder buydowns up. The spread between what a prepared buyer can lock in Ellis County and what a waiting buyer will face when they finally move is now wider than at any point this year.

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The Assistance Programs That Actually Apply Here

Most first-time buyer content lists Denton, Plano, and Frisco and while those programs are real, you may not live there, and none of them touch Ellis County.

But there are some programs that do…

The Texas State Affordable Housing Corporation offers up to 5% of the loan amount through Home Sweet Texas and Homes for Texas Heroes, as either a grant that never has to be repaid or a second lien that can be forgiven after three years. To qualify you would need a 620 minimum credit score as well as county-based income and price limits according to TSAHC’s program details. The Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs runs The Texas Homebuyer Program statewide via TDHCA’s homebuyer portal, and its My First Texas Home product pairs a 30-year fixed with up to 5% in assistance, with rates recently quoted from about 6.25% per this 2026 overview of TDHCA programs. In a 7% market, that rate is worth a look on its own. Both programs run in funding rounds, so confirm availability before you build a plan around them.

Now for the USDA detail that is worth this entire article to the right reader. USDA loans still allow 0% down, and much of Ellis County qualifies: Midlothian, Ferris, Palmer, Red Oak, Maypearl, Ovilla, Milford, Italy, Bardwell, Garrett, and Pecan Hill all appear on current eligibility maps. The built-up core of Waxahachie largely does not, and Ennis is largely off the map as well. Eligibility is determined by exact street address, and the maps are constantly redrawn as areas grow. The fiscal 2026 income limit is $122,800 for households of one to four and $162,100 for five to eight, effective July 13, 2026 per USDA Rural Development’s income limit schedule.

Read that again if you rent in Waxahachie and work in Midlothian or Red Oak. The zero-down option may exist for the house you would buy but not for the one you currently rent. Click on the image below to explore more downpayment assistance options.

These are the lenders I work with and recommend to my clients:

• Andrew Bryan, Miramar Mortgage: andrewthelender.com
• Jennifer Nelson, Eustis Mortgage: eustismortgage.com
• Taylor Fruge, Lower Mortgage: lower.com

I recommend these lenders based on their expertise and service. I do not receive compensation for referrals.

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Why Ellis County Holds Up When the Metro Wobbles

Rent that holds flat while the metro average falls tells you something. The population data tells you exactly what.

Ellis County reached an estimated 249,280 residents in 2026, growing 3.49% in a single year according to World Population Review’s Ellis County estimates. Against the 2000 Census count of 111,360, the county has more than doubled in a quarter century, and Waxahachie has moved past 50,000 residents. The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro added roughly 840,000 people between the 2020 Census and mid-2025, and in a single year through July 2025 it added 123,557, the second-largest one-year numeric gain of any metro in the country behind Houston per Fort Worth EDP’s analysis of Census metro data.

Fortunately, income moved with it. Ellis County’s median household income is $99,595 as of the 2024 American Community Survey, about 32.5% above the national median of $75,149. Local wages outrunning local rent growth means the qualified-buyer pool here is deeper than the affordability headlines suggest.

And the honest counterweight. Ellis County is adding its own supply. Waxahachie approved a Minto Communities master-planned development of up to roughly 13,000 dwelling units across about 3,170 acres, and Myrtle Creek adds roughly 2,500 more. Over a decade, that supply should moderate local pressure. Over the next three years it will not, because those units will deliver slowly and the population arriving won’t wait for them.

For where that growth is landing now, visit the Waxahachie area market overview and the Waxahachie city guide to the Gingerbread City. Buyers arriving from out of state should run the origin-market comparison first, because the tax math changes everything: relocating from New York, from Washington state, or any other state. Priced out of Waxahachie proper? Maypearl and Aquilla sit inside a workable commute at a different entry point, and both are worth checking against the USDA map. For how fast infrastructure repricing moves through a neighborhood here, read the coverage of the 75-acre Palmetto Road mixed-use development.

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Buyer Representation: The Settlement Is Now Final

If you have been out of the market since 2023, the rules for paying your agent changed, and as of this summer they have settled into law.

Under the NAR settlement, an agent working with a buyer must have a written representation agreement in place before touring homes, stating an objectively ascertainable compensation amount: a flat fee or a fixed percentage, never an open-ended range according to NAR’s summary of compensation changes. Offers of buyer-agent compensation cannot be published on the MLS, though sellers may still offer it through other channels per NAR’s summary of the MLS rule changes. Compensation has always been negotiable per NAR’s settlement FAQ.

On August 19, 2026, the Eighth Circuit affirmed the settlement and rejected every objector group that challenged it as reported by Inman, and related settlements were upheld on September 2. Amendments to the REALTOR® Code of Ethics that took effect January 1, 2026 align the ethics rules with the off-MLS compensation structure.

Expect a clear, written, specific compensation agreement from every agent you interview, including this one, before a single showing happens.

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Sellers: The Leverage Shifted, and Pricing Has to Respect It

Buyers have not disappeared. They are queued up, building tension and anticipation. Every month a renter pays $500 to $600 over the ownership breakeven is a month their desire to move increases.

The Fed just made that queue slower to clear, and the local data deserves respect rather than spin. The MBA’s unadjusted purchase application index was running 19% below the same week a year earlier heading into the decision per the MBA’s weekly survey. Nearly 45% of buyers received a seller concession this summer per National Mortgage News citing Redfin data. Redfin shows Waxahachie’s median down 5.2% year over year at 61 days on market.

You are now competing directly against new-construction inventory offering 4.99% financing and five-figure flex cash. A resale seller who does not account for that in pricing or concessions is not competing with the house down the street. They are competing with a savvy builder’s margin and deep pockets.

Sellers who price to current data and are willing to fund a rate buydown of their own, are often transacting. Sellers pricing to 2022 are just stacking their days-on-market.

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The Move

The metro average is describing a broader market that no one person actually lives in. Dallas apartment rents are falling because Dallas built too many apartments. The median lease in Waxahachie runs $500 to $600 a month over the ownership breakeven on a local home. The Fed hiked on September 16 and told you it probably is not done. Daily mortgage rates are above 7% and some builders in Ellis county are still writing 4.99% fixed rate mortgages, with most of those offers requiring a close by September 30.

This is not a market that rewards waiting. This is a market that rewards arithmetic and some brief opportunistic moments, while raising the price of patience and waiting.

Run your number against the breakeven. Then decide.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Did the Fed raise rates in September 2026?
Yes. On September 16, 2026, the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since July 2023, on a unanimous vote per the Federal Reserve. The updated projections point to 4.1% at the end of 2026.

What are mortgage rates right now?
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed averaged 6.95% for the week ending September 17, 2026, with the 15-year at 6.26% per Freddie Mac. Daily trackers were above 7% as of September 18 per Mortgage News Daily.

Should I wait for rates to drop before buying in Texas?
Fannie Mae and the MBA now expect about 6.8% by the end of 2026, with Fannie near 6.7% through 2027 per National Mortgage News, and Fed officials signaled more hikes are possible. Buying preserves the option to refinance later; waiting does not recover the rent paid in the meantime.

Are rents going up or down in Dallas-Fort Worth?
Down. National rents fell year over year for a 37th straight month in August per Realtor.com, and Dallas is down 8.8% on Zumper per Zumper. The decline is concentrated in apartments in high-supply submarkets, not single-family leases in outlying counties.

What does it cost to rent a house in Waxahachie?
The median executed lease over the past year was $2,277 per month per Pax Realty’s NTREIS data. Three-bedroom apartments average about $2,023 per RentCafe.

What is the 5% rule for renting versus buying?
Multiply the home’s value by 5% and divide by 12 for a rough monthly breakeven, a shortcut developed by Ben Felix at PWL Capital see PWL Capital. On Waxahachie medians of $385,000 to $421,000, that is about $1,604 to $1,754 per month.

What is the median home price in Waxahachie?
It depends on the window: $365,000 on Redfin’s three-month data per Redfin, $385,000 over six months on Resideline per Resideline, and $421,000 over twelve months of MLS closings per Pax Realty.

Are builders offering rate buydowns in Ellis County?
Yes. As of September 2026, D.R. Horton at Saddlebrook Estates advertises 4.99% on FHA loans for homes closing by September 30 per D.R. Horton, and John Houston Homes advertises 4.99% fixed with flex cash per John Houston Homes. Terms are lender-specific, community-specific, and time-limited.

Does Waxahachie qualify for USDA zero-down loans?
The built-up core of Waxahachie largely does not, but much of Ellis County does, including Midlothian, Ferris, Palmer, Red Oak, Maypearl, Ovilla, Milford, Italy, Bardwell, Garrett, and Pecan Hill. The fiscal 2026 income limit is $122,800 for households of one to four per USDA. Verify the exact address.

What down payment assistance is available in Ellis County?
TSAHC offers up to 5% as a grant or forgivable second lien with a 620 minimum credit score per TSAHC, and TDHCA’s My First Texas Home pairs a fixed-rate loan with up to 5% in assistance via TDHCA. Both run in funding rounds.

Is the NAR commission settlement final?
Yes. The Eighth Circuit affirmed it on August 19, 2026 per Inman. Buyers sign a written agreement specifying agent compensation before touring, and compensation offers cannot appear on the MLS.

Why is Ellis County growing so fast?
The county reached an estimated 249,280 residents in 2026, up 3.49% year over year and more than double the 2000 Census count per World Population Review, driven by overflow from a metro that has added roughly 840,000 people since 2020.

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For a personalized breakdown of your rent-versus-buy math, current builder incentives by community, and USDA or down payment assistance eligibility for a specific address, schedule a one-on-one relocation and buyer strategy consultation or explore the full North Texas Market Insider homepage for city-by-city data across Ellis, Johnson, and Hill counties.

Last Updated: September 21, 2026. Rate figures reflect the Freddie Mac survey released September 17, 2026, and daily trackers through September 18. The next FOMC meeting is October 28, 2026.