Is Saving $80/month Worth Waiting Another Year to Buy A Home?

Market Intelligence Report | December 2025

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There’s a conversation happening at kitchen tables across Ellis County right now. Young families in Waxahachie, professionals relocating to Midlothian, first-time buyers eyeing Ferris’s explosive growth, they’re all asking the same question:

“Should we wait for mortgage rates to drop before we buy?”

I get it. When your uncle tells you rates will come back down to 3%, when social media prophets predict a housing crash, when national headlines scream about affordability, waiting feels smart. Strategic. Responsible.

But here’s what changes the conversation: the actual math.

When you run real North Texas numbers, today’s rates, today’s builder incentives, today’s market realities, most buyers discover something surprising: waiting for that “perfect rate” might save them less than the cost of their daily coffee run.

Let me show you what I mean.

The Rate Reality Check: What Are We Actually Working With?

Before we talk about waiting, let’s establish what “today’s rates” actually means in late 2025.

The Conventional Market

If you’re shopping resale homes with traditional financing, you’re looking at rates hovering in the 6-6.5% range for 30-year fixed mortgages. Money’s national mortgage rate survey tracks purchase rates around 6.35%, and the Texas Real Estate Research Center projects 30-year fixed rates staying in the 5.6-6% window through year-end.

That’s your baseline for “waiting”, the rate you’re hoping will drop.

The Builder Game (Where Smart Buyers Are Actually Winning)

Here’s where it gets interesting. While resale buyers wait for rates to fall, DFW builders are actively buying rates down to levels most buyers don’t even realize exist.

I’m talking about:

• Fixed rates starting at 4.99% on select quick-move-in homes
• 3/2/1 buydowns with first-year rates as low as 1.875% stepping to long-term rates around 4.875%
• Tens of thousands in flex cash that can permanently buy down your rate, cover closing costs, or both
• Ellis County builders specifically offering aggressive incentives to move inventory before year-end

So when buyers tell me they’re “waiting for better rates,” I ask: Better than what? Better than the 4.99% fixed rate you can lock today on new construction?

Because that’s the real comparison we need to make.

The Payment Reality: What Does “Waiting for Lower Rates” Actually Buy You?

Let’s run the numbers on a typical North Texas home purchase. I’ll use the standard mortgage payment formula that any qualified lender would use.

Assumptions:

• 30-year fixed mortgage
• 5% down payment (achievable for most qualified buyers)
• Principal and interest only (taxes and insurance vary by property)

Example 1: $450,000 Home in Ellis County

This is right in the sweet spot for new construction in Waxahachie, Midlothian, or the Ferris growth corridor.

Scenario A: Resale Home at Today’s Market Rate

• Purchase price: $450,000
• Down payment (5%): $22,500
• Loan amount: $427,500
• Rate: 6.25%
• Monthly payment (P/I): $2,632

Scenario B: New Construction with Builder Buydown

• Same purchase price and down payment
• Builder-bought-down rate: 4.99%
• Monthly payment (P/I): $2,292

Difference: You save $340/month immediately, over $4,000 per year, by using builder incentives that exist TODAY.

No waiting. No hoping. No betting on future conditions. Just smart use of current market opportunities.

The “Dream Scenario”: What If Rates Actually Drop to 4%?

Let’s imagine the scenario buyers are really hoping for when they say “I’m waiting for rates to drop.” Let’s say rates miraculously fall back to 4%, and let’s pretend (generously) that home prices don’t rise while you wait.

Same $450,000 home, same $427,500 loan:

• Payment at 6.25%: $2,632/month
• Payment at 4.0%: $2,041/month

Difference: $591/month savings

That’s real money. But there are two massive problems with this fantasy:

First, no credible forecast, not Freddie Mac, not the Texas Real Estate Research Center, not professional mortgage analysts, no-one sees 30-year rates returning to 4% in the in the next 5 years. Most Texas projections expect rates to stay around 6% into 2026.

Second, keeping that home price frozen at $450,000 while you wait isn’t realistic in North Texas. DFW remains one of the country’s strongest job-growth markets, Ellis County population continues expanding, and the Texas A&M Real Estate Center projects modest positive appreciation of roughly 2-3% annually in most submarkets.

So the only way this “wait for 4%” strategy works is if you correctly bet on a massive rate collapse with zero price growth, a combination that contradicts every reliable forecast available.

The Real Waiting Game: What Happens If Rates Drop Just Half a Point?

Here’s the scenario most buyers are actually considering. They’re not waiting for 4%, they’re hoping rates might ease from today’s 6.25% down to somewhere in the 5s.

Let’s see what that actually saves you.

Using the same $427,500 loan on a $450,000 home:

From 6.25% to 6.0%:

• Payment at 6.25%: $2,632/month
• Payment at 6.0%: $2,563/month
• Savings: $69/month (about $2.30 per day)

From 6.25% to 5.5%:

• Payment at 6.25%: $2,632/month
• Payment at 5.5%: $2,427/month
• Savings: $205/month (about $6.80 per day)

This is the uncomfortable truth most “wait for rates” advice doesn’t mention: realistic near-term rate drops save most North Texas buyers between $50-$200 per month.

Not $500. Not life-changing money. About the cost of a family dinner out once a month.

The Silent Wealth Transfer: What Waiting Actually Costs You

Now let’s talk about what happens while you wait for that $69-$205/month savings.

Lost Scenario: Waiting One Year for Rates to Improve

Today’s opportunity:

• Home price: $400,000
• 5% down → Loan: $380,000
• Rate: 6.25%
• Payment(P/I): $2,340/month

You decide to wait a year, hoping for lower rates.

But DFW market forecasts suggest low single-digit annual price growth (about 2-3%) in most suburbs, not crashes or declines. Meanwhile, North Texas rents continue climbing at roughly 1.5% per year.

One year later:

• Home price rises 2% to $408,000
• Rates drop from 6.25% to 5.75%
• 5% down → Loan: $387,600
• Payment: $2,262/month

Net savings from waiting one year: $78/month

You just spent 12 months:

• Paying approximately $2,200-$2,500/month in rising North Texas rent
• Building exactly $0 in equity
• Watching home prices edge higher
• Hoping market conditions would align perfectly

And your reward? A mortgage payment that’s $2.60 per day cheaper.

The Two-Year Wait: Even More Sobering Math

Let’s extend this. What if you commit to a longer wait, hoping rates will really drop?

Today:

• Price: $450,000
• 5% down → Loan: $427,500
• Rate: 6.25%
• Payment: $2,632/month

Two years later (assuming 3% annual price growth, well within historic DFW norms):

• New price: $477,405
• You finally get 5.5% rates
• 5% down → Loan: $453,534
• Payment: $2,575/month

Net monthly savings vs. buying today: $57

You spent two more years renting, likely paying over $50,000 in total rent payments that built zero equity, to save less than $2 per day on your future mortgage.

Why New Construction Is Beating the “Wait and See” Strategy

When you actually run the numbers, new construction with builder buydowns often delivers a better payment TODAY than you’ll likely get by waiting for future rate drops on resale homes.

What Ellis County and DFW Builders Are Offering Right Now

Recent examples I’m seeing across North Texas include:

• Fixed rates starting at 4.99% with thousands toward closing costs on select inventory homes
• 3/2/1 buydowns with first-year rates as low as 1.875%, stepping to long-term rates around 4.875%
• Up to $20,000-$55,000 in incentives usable for rate buydowns, closing costs, or design upgrades
• Communities specifically in Ellis County promoting interest-rate buydowns and flex cash

The Real Payment Comparison

Go back to that $450,000 home:

Resale at 6.25%: $2,632/month
New construction at 4.99%: $2,292/month

Immediate monthly savings: $340

Plus you get:

• New-home warranties reducing repair risk and homeowners insurance payments significantly
• Better energy efficiency (lower utility bills), especially important with newer Climate Zone 3 building codes in Ellis County
• No deferred maintenance or hidden problems
• Built to 2024-2025 construction standards

This is why experienced North Texas agents are coaching qualified buyers toward new construction with strategic use of builder incentives, not endless waiting for market conditions that may never materialize.

“But What If I Buy Now and Rates Drop Later?”

This is the fear keeping many buyers stuck in analysis paralysis.

Here’s what people forget: Buying at today’s rate doesn’t lock you in forever.

If rates significantly drop in the future:

• You can refinance into the lower rate as long as you qualify and the numbers make sense after closing costs
• Refinancing activity historically surges whenever rates fall significantly below the prevailing average
• Many lenders estimate breaking even on refinance costs within 12-24 months if the rate drop is substantial

The crucial difference:

If you buy now: You’re building equity every month while waiting for that refinance opportunity
If you keep renting: You’re just hoping conditions align perfectly later, with zero equity accumulated

What the Data Actually Shows About North Texas Markets

Let me be clear about what reliable forecasts are actually saying (not social media predictions or national clickbait):

DFW Home Price Projections

• Texas Real Estate Research Center forecasts suggest modest positive appreciation (approximately 2-3% annually) in most DFW submarkets
• Strong job growth and in-migration continue supporting demand
• No broad “housing crash” predicted by credible regional analysts

Ellis County Specific Factors

• The 5,200-acre Ferris development is moving forward, adding thousands of homes and jobs
• Waxahachie and Midlothian continue seeing population growth as affordable alternatives to closer-in suburbs
• Major employers expanding operations in the southern DFW corridor

Rent Trajectory

• North Texas rents projected to grow roughly 1.5% annually
• Single-family rents in Ellis County suburbs typically $2,000-$2,500/month and rising
• No forecast suggests rents will drop while you wait for home prices to fall

Bottom line: The data doesn’t support a “wait for everything to get cheaper” strategy. It supports smart use of current opportunities.

The Strategic Questions You Should Actually Be Asking

Instead of “Should I wait for rates to drop?”, here are the questions that lead to better decisions:

1. “What is waiting actually costing me per month in rent and lost equity building?”
2. “What builder incentives can I access TODAY that might not exist in 6-12 months?”
3. “If rates drop later, can I refinance, and if so, why not start building equity now?”
4. “Am I financially ready to own, or am I using rate concerns as a reason to delay a decision I’m not ready to make?”
5. “Five years from now, will I be glad I bought in late 2025, or will I wish I had started building equity sooner?”

The Bottom Line for North Texas Buyers Right Now

Here’s what the actual math shows:

1. Small rate drops don’t move the needle as much as headlines suggest. Moving from 6.25% to 6.0% typically saves less than $100/month, not the game-changing amounts people imagine.
2. Home price growth and rent increases quietly eliminate most “savings” from waiting. With DFW projected to see modest appreciation and rising rents, a 1-2 year wait can cost tens of thousands in rent and higher purchase prices for a payment that’s only $50-150/month lower.
3. New construction with buydowns often beats waiting for future resale rate drops. Fixed rates around 4.99% plus closing-cost credits are available RIGHT NOW for qualified buyers on select homes.
4. You can refinance later if rates truly fall, but you cannot recapture lost years of equity building. The wealth-building power of homeownership doesn’t wait for perfect market timing.
5. The real question isn’t “What if rates drop?” It’s “What is the total cost of waiting, in rent, lost appreciation, and missed opportunities?”

My Take: The Franklin Perspective

Here’s what I tell clients who are caught in analysis paralysis:

Chaos is opportunity.

Right now, while everyone’s waiting for “perfect conditions,” smart buyers are using builder incentives to lock rates that most people don’t even realize exist. They’re building equity in communities like Ferris that will look completely different in 5-10 years. They’re getting into homes that will appreciate alongside continued North Texas growth.

In 2030, nobody will remember whether you bought at 4.99% or 4.5%. They’ll remember whether you owned during one of the strongest wealth-building periods in North Texas history, or whether you spent those years paying someone else’s mortgage while waiting for conditions that never came.

The buyers who win aren’t the ones with perfect timing. They’re the ones who recognize opportunity when market noise creates it.

That’s what I do at North Texas Market Insider, I see market moves before they hit the news, I identify opportunities while others hesitate, and I help qualified buyers make informed decisions based on data instead of fear.

The question isn’t whether you should wait for rates to drop.

The question is: Can you afford to let $80/month, on paper, keep you from building wealth in one of America’s strongest growth markets?

Learn more smart buying strategies(click on the image below)

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Ready to see what new construction incentives you actually qualify for?

Text me at 214-228-0003 for current Ellis County builder rates and a real payment comparison based on your situation, not generic national advice that doesn’t apply to North Texas markets.

Bobby Franklin, REALTOR®
Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team
214-228-0003
northtexasmarketinsider.com

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