The Big Picture: Listen, while every other agent in DFW is chasing single-family homes, something extraordinary is happening in the condo market that most people are completely missing. We’re seeing the strongest buyer’s market for condominiums in over a decade, and if you understand what’s driving it, you’re about to have leverage you haven’t seen since 2013.
Here’s what you need to know: There are 72.3% more condo sellers than buyers right now. Let me translate that for you, sellers are desperate, buyers are scarce, and negotiating power has completely flipped. This is the kind of market disruption that creates generational wealth for those who see it coming. [1]
Why the Condo Market Just Became a Buyer’s Playground
The Cost Squeeze That’s Changing Everything
Here’s what’s really happening behind the scenes: HOA fees jumped 13% from April 2024 to April 2025. That median $143 monthly fee? In North Texas, it’s climbing even faster due to:
- Insurance premiums spiking 15-20% for condo associations
- Special assessments hitting owners for building upgrades
- Construction costs that refuse to come down
The Franklin Insight: While other agents see rising costs as a problem, I see opportunity. This cost pressure is creating motivated sellers and negotiating leverage that hasn’t existed in years. The question isn’t whether this is bad news, it’s whether you’re positioned to capitalize on it.
Regulations Creating Market Distortion
After the Surfside tragedy, regulators went into overdrive. [2] New requirements hitting the market include:
- Enhanced structural inspections
- Increased reserve funding mandates
- Costly balcony safety assessments
These regulations are necessary, but they’re also creating seller panic and buyer hesitation. That gap? That’s where smart buyers make their move.
Texas Markets Leading the Disruption
Check these numbers:
- San Antonio: 385.8% more sellers than buyers
- Austin: 223.8% more sellers than buyers
- Dallas: 207.8% more sellers than buyers [3]
Truth Bomb: When you see imbalances this extreme, you’re not looking at a temporary blip, you’re looking at a fundamental market restructuring. The agents who understand this will dominate. The buyers who understand this will make out like a bandit.
What This Really Means for Buyers
Your Negotiating Position Just Got Unfair
Here’s what unprecedented looks like in real terms:
- Condos selling for 2% below asking price on average [4]
- 58 days average time to contract (translation: sellers are getting anxious)
- Multiple options without bidding wars
- Seller concessions becoming standard, not exception
Strategy Shift: Stop thinking like a buyer in a competitive market. Start thinking like an investor with options. Because that’s exactly what you are right now.
When This Window Closes (And It Will)
Let me be direct about timing: This advantage persists through 2026, but here’s why:
- Mortgage rates staying elevated around 6.4%
- New supply continuing to hit the market
- Economic uncertainty keeping casual buyers sidelined
The Five-Steps-Ahead Play: Smart buyers aren’t waiting for perfect conditions. They’re recognizing that “perfect” for buyers looks exactly like what we have right now, motivated sellers, multiple options, and leverage that won’t last forever.
The Real Question: Should YOU Buy Right Now?
The Financial Case (Beyond What You’ll Hear Elsewhere)
National median condo price: $350,000 (down 0.9% year-over-year). First price declines in years.
But here’s what matters more than the price:
You Can Negotiate Everything:
- Purchase price (obviously)
- Seller-paid closing costs
- Interest rate buydowns
- Home warranties
- Repair credits
The Ownership Arbitrage: In most North Texas markets, owning still beats renting, especially when you factor in tax benefits and forced seller concessions.
The Due Diligence That Separates Smart from Lucky
Before you make any move, you need to understand:
HOA Financial Health (Non-Negotiable):
- Recent budgets and reserve studies
- Planned special assessments
- Insurance coverage adequacy
- Maintenance schedules and deferred items
Building Fundamentals:
- Age and condition (older = higher insurance + more assessments)
- Location economics (proximity to jobs, transport, amenities)
- Long-term value drivers
Real Talk: A great deal on a poorly-managed building isn’t a deal, it’s a financial trap. Make sure you have and agent who will do the work.
DFW Market Intelligence: Where the Opportunities Actually Are
Dallas County Dynamics
577 sellers versus 1,776 buyers = 207.8% seller surplus
What that looks like on the ground:
- 35.6% of listings with price reductions
- 57 days average market time (up 18.8% year-over-year)
- Selling at 95% of list price
Market Read: Sellers are adjusting expectations. Smart buyers are capitalizing.
Austin’s Transformation
223.8% more sellers than buyers. Austin went from seller’s paradise to buyer’s market faster than almost any metro in America.
Current indicators:
- Median prices down 3.5% year-over-year
- 7.1 months inventory (vs 5.0 nationally)
- Active listings up 20.1%
Strategic Takeaway: Austin’s pain is buyer opportunity. This is what disruption looks like in real-time.
Your Action Plan: How to Actually Win
Negotiation Strategy for Maximum Leverage
Research Like a Pro:
- Know comparable sales cold
- Calculate total cost of ownership (HOA + insurance + taxes + assessments)
- Understand that cash offers win even at lower prices
Request Everything:
- Closing cost coverage
- Home warranties
- Repair completion before close
- Rate buydowns if applicable
When to Pull the Trigger vs. When to Wait
Move Forward Now If:
- You’re planning 5+ year ownership
- You have stable income plus emergency reserves for HOA increases
- The building is well-managed with adequate reserves
- Total monthly cost (including HOA) fits your budget comfortably
Pump the Brakes If:
- Job stability is questionable
- Building shows deferred maintenance red flags
- HOA reserves are inadequate
- You’re financially stretched to make it work
The Franklin Mindset: Don’t chase deals. Chase strategic opportunities that align with your long-term position. The market rewards patience and preparation.
Looking Ahead: What 2026 Brings
Expert Forecasts (And What They’re Missing)
NAR predictions for broader market:
- Existing home sales up 6% in 2025, 11% in 2026
- New home sales up 10% in 2025, 5% in 2026
- Median prices up 3% in 2025, 4% in 2026
But here’s the thing: The condo market will likely lag due to ongoing cost pressures and regulatory changes. That lag? That’s your continued opportunity window. [5]
Long-Term Investment Reality
Condos historically appreciate similarly to single-family homes over long periods, but short-term volatility is higher.
Consider:
- Location desirability and job growth
- Building management quality
- Rental income potential
- Exit strategy flexibility
Truth Bomb: Your investment horizon matters more than your entry price. Think in years, not months.
The Bottom Line: This Won’t Last
We’re in the strongest condo buyer’s market since 2013. That 72% surplus of sellers over buyers? That’s not just a statistic, it’s negotiating power that creates wealth.
But here’s what most people miss: This opportunity requires action, not contemplation. It requires due diligence, not FOMO. It requires strategic thinking, not emotional decision-making.
For buyers who can comfortably afford total ownership costs, including rising HOAs and insurance, this is your moment. Not next year. Not when rates drop. Now.
The Strategic Reality: As mortgage rates eventually decrease and buyer confidence returns, this leverage disappears. Today’s advantages become tomorrow’s “remember when we could have…”
Your Next Move
The market doesn’t care about your readiness. It only rewards those who recognize opportunity and execute with precision.
This is where the separation happens. Between agents who see what’s happening and those who don’t. Between buyers who understand leverage and those who wait for “perfect.” Between those who build wealth strategically and those who chase it emotionally.
The intelligence is here. The market data is clear. The opportunity is real.
What you do with it? That’s on you.
Check out my guide on Relocating to Texas: https://northtexasmarketinsider.com/the-north-texas-relocation-playbook/
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Bobby Franklin – REALTOR®
Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team
Serving Ellis County & DFW
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