The Upside Down Housing Market: Hawkins Lab Experiments

How New Construction Is Reshaping Ellis County (And Why I Have Insider Access to the Experiments That Matter)

---

If you’ve been following this series, you know by now that the housing market went through its own Upside Down moment. We’ve explored how the portal opened in 2020, how Vecna’s mortgage curse trapped millions of homeowners, and how the Mind Flayer’s economic web of Federal Reserve policy controls everything from above.

But there’s one critical piece we haven’t addressed yet: Who’s actually CREATING the new reality we’re living in right here in Ellis County?

Enter Hawkins National Laboratory.

In Stranger Things, Hawkins Lab wasn’t just studying the Upside Down, they were actively experimenting with it, trying to control it, weaponize it, and profit from it. The scientists in their clean white coats thought they could contain the chaos, harness the power, and shape reality itself.

Sound familiar?

Because right now, across Ellis County and southern DFW, there are modern-day Hawkins Labs conducting massive experiments that will reshape our housing market for the next decade. They’re called developers and homebuilders, and their controlled experiments are creating entirely new communities, reshaping infrastructure, and fundamentally altering the supply-demand dynamics that determine whether you can afford to live here.

The biggest experiment? A 5,200-acre project called South Creek Ranch that will create an entire new city from scratch just 20 miles south of downtown Dallas.

But that’s not the only lab running experiments. I’m going to show you FOUR major developments happening right now in our market, including two where I have direct insider relationships that give my clients strategic advantages.

And just like in Stranger Things, not everyone understands what’s really happening in these labs, or what it means for their future.

But you will. Because I’m about to give you the intelligence other agents either don’t have or won’t share.

---

THE LAB: Where New Housing Supply Is Created (And Why Location Matters)

Let’s be clear about what a development project actually is: it’s a multi-hundred-million-dollar bet on human behavior.

A builder looks at demographic data, economic trends, infrastructure plans, and market conditions, then makes a calculated wager: “We believe X number of families will want to live HERE, at THESE price points, with THESE amenities, over the next Y years.”

They’re not guessing. They’re running experiments based on hypotheses about how people will live, work, and move in the future.

And right now? Ellis County is one of the most active housing laboratories in the entire Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

Experiment #1: South Creek Ranch: The Mega-Development Reshaping Everything

Let’s start with the monster that’s going to transform Ellis County whether you’re paying attention or not: South Creek Ranch.

The Scale:

• 5,200 acres of planned development in Dallas and Ellis counties
• Located approximately 20 miles south of downtown Dallas
• Previously the Wallace family ranch (W. Ray Wallace, former CEO of Trinity Industries)
• Acquired by Cawley Partners in early 2024 – one of the region’s largest land purchases in recent memory

The Initial Plan:

• 2,000 acres targeted for first phase development
• “Digital commerce parks” for data centers and advanced manufacturing
• Logistics facilities and corporate campus exceeding 1,000 acres
• Residential development to follow commercial infrastructure

The Hypothesis Being Tested:

“Corporate America is reshuffling its footprint post-COVID, and companies need massive land parcels for data infrastructure, manufacturing, and logistics in business-friendly states with room to scale. Build the jobs first, and housing demand will follow.”

What This Means For Ellis County:

When you drop billions of dollars in corporate infrastructure 20 miles south of Dallas, you’re not just creating jobs, you’re creating an entirely new population center that needs:

• 15,000-20,000 new homes over the next decade
• Schools, retail, medical facilities, restaurants
• Infrastructure upgrades (roads, utilities, services)
• Property value appreciation in surrounding areas

Here’s what most people miss: South Creek Ranch isn’t happening in isolation. It’s the ANCHOR that makes every other development in Ellis County more valuable. When major corporations commit billions to an area, smaller builders read that as validation and accelerate their own projects.

The ripple effect has already started. And if you’re not factoring South Creek Ranch into your real estate decisions in Ellis County, you’re missing the biggest market-shaping force of the next decade.

---

Experiment #2: Myrtle Creek: The Competitive Laboratory Where Multiple Builders Battle

Now let’s talk about what happens when you put SEVEN different builders in the same 1,263-acre master-planned community and let them compete for buyers.

Welcome to Myrtle Creek – Waxahachie’s luxury master-planned experiment.

The Setup:

• 1,263 acres off I-35, 30 minutes from Dallas, 45 minutes from Fort Worth
• Seven builders running simultaneous experiments: Highland Homes, Perry Homes, David Weekley Homes, Coventry Homes, UnionMain Homes, Risewell Homes, and Impression Homes
• Price range: $300,000s to $738,000+ (something for every buyer tier)
• Waxahachie ISD with state-recognized arts program

The Amenities Arms Race:

• Lazy river (yes, a LAZY RIVER in a residential community)
• Multiple resort-style pools
• Extensive trail systems and parks
• Pickleball courts
• Treehouse playground
• Full-time on-site HOA manager
• Lifestyle director coordinating community events

The Hypothesis Being Tested:

“Families will pay a premium for resort-style amenities if the community creates a lifestyle, not just a neighborhood and multiple builders competing in the same space will create innovation and value that single-builder communities can’t match.”

Here’s Why Myrtle Creek Is Fascinating:

Most master-planned communities are single-builder affairs. The developer sells to ONE homebuilder who controls the entire project. Myrtle Creek is different, it’s a competitive marketplace where builders are literally across the street from each other.

The Builder Positioning:

LUXURY TIER (targeting move-up buyers and executives):

• Perry Homes: $599,900-$738,900 – Texas’ largest woman-owned builder, focusing on smart home integration and premium finishes
• David Weekley Homes: $452,990-$511,990 – Award-winning designs, personalization focus
• Highland Homes: $374,990-$534,990 – Employee-owned, strong reputation for quality and customer service

MID-MARKET TIER (targeting established families):

• Coventry Homes: Craftsmanship and contemporary design focus
• UnionMain Homes: 50+ years experience, first-time buyer friendly
• HistoryMaker Homes: $474,990-$627,990
• DRB Homes: $499,900-$657,900

VALUE TIER (targeting price-conscious buyers):

• Impression Homes: $326,990-$470,521 – Entry-level pricing, 30+ years in business

What This Competitive Laboratory Reveals:

When you have 7 builders in the same community, you see REAL market dynamics play out:

1. Price compression at the top – Perry and David Weekley can’t charge arbitrary premiums because Highland is right there offering comparable quality for less
2. Feature escalation – Builders compete on included features rather than just price, so buyers get more value per dollar
3. Honest market pricing – You can literally walk across the street and compare a $375K Highland home to a $380K Perry home and see EXACTLY what you’re paying for
4. Builder reputation matters – When builders compete head-to-head, their customer service and quality differences become obvious fast

The Strategic Play at Myrtle Creek:

If you’re buying here, you want an agent who understands the builder landscape, who’s offering genuine value versus who’s overpriced for their tier, which builders have the best warranties and customer service, and who’s likely to offer the best incentives when they need to move inventory.

Most agents just say “Myrtle Creek has homes from the $300s to $700s.” I tell you which $400K home is actually worth $400K and which one should be $365K.

That’s the intelligence gap.

Experiment #3: Ridge Crossing: The Boutique Premium Location Play

While Myrtle Creek tests the multi-builder mega-amenity model, Ridge Crossing is testing something completely different: Will buyers pay Highland Homes and DRB Homes premiums for location and exclusivity?

The Setup:

• Boutique community with oversized lots
• Located directly across from Waxahachie High School
• Minutes from I-35 and Highway 287
• Low 2.05% tax rate (this matters and we’ll explain why)

The Builders:

• Highland Homes: Starting $490,000s, homes 2,263-3,630 sq ft
• DRB Homes (formerly Brightland Homes): Similar positioning and pricing

The Amenities:

• Pickleball courts (because of course)
• Playground
• Park and greenbelt views
• Hike-and-bike trails

The Hypothesis Being Tested:

“Move-up buyers will pay $100K+ more than Myrtle Creek pricing for smaller lot counts (exclusivity), better school proximity, and premium builder reputations, if the tax rate is low enough to offset the higher purchase price.”

Why The 2.05% Tax Rate Matters:

Let’s do the math that most buyers miss:

Ridge Crossing at $525,000 with 2.05% tax rate:

• Annual property taxes: ~$10,762
• Monthly escrow: ~$897

Myrtle Creek at $450,000 with ~2.5% tax rate (Ellis County average):

• Annual property taxes: ~$11,250
• Monthly escrow: ~$937

See what just happened? You paid $75K MORE for the house but your monthly tax payment is actually LOWER. Over 30 years, that lower tax rate saves you approximately $14,400.

The Ridge Crossing buyer is saying: “I’ll pay more upfront for Highland/DRB quality and location, but I want a tax rate that doesn’t punish me monthly for the bigger purchase.”

The Strategic Intelligence:

Ridge Crossing appeals to a very specific buyer:

• Established professionals who value builder reputation
• Families who want walkability to Waxahachie High School
• Buyers who understand tax rate math
• People who prefer boutique exclusivity over mega-amenity resort living

If that’s your profile, Ridge Crossing makes sense. If you’re paying for the Highland name without actually valuing these specific benefits, you’re overpaying.

Experiment #4: Lakeway Estates: The Lifestyle Experiment (And Where I Have Insider Access)

Now we get to the experiment that matters most to MY clients, because this is where I have direct builder relationships that create tangible advantages.

The Setup:

• 1-acre+ estate lots near Lake Waxahachie
• Two builders competing in the same community
• Waxahachie ISD
• NO MUD (Municipal Utility District), NO PID (Public Improvement District): this is HUGE and I’ll explain why

The Builders:

Centre Living Homes (where I have my insider access):

• Price range: $475,000-$625,000
• Home sizes: 2,338-3,160 sqft
• Premier DFW builder, subsidiary of Green Brick Partners
• Known for design-driven approach and customer service excellence
• This is where my insider access provides value

Chesmar Homes (competitor in same community):

• Price range: $649,900-$849,900
• Home sizes: 2,619-4,503 sq ft
• Larger, more premium positioning

The Hypothesis Being Tested:

“There’s a buyer segment that wants LAND and LAKE ACCESS more than resort amenities, families who’d rather have an acre to call their own and proximity to water recreation than a community lazy river and pickleball courts.”

Why NO MUD/NO PID Is A Game-Changer:

Most people buying new construction don’t understand what they’re signing up for with MUD and PID taxes. Let me explain:

MUD (Municipal Utility District):

• Separate taxing entity that finances water, sewer, drainage infrastructure
• Adds 0.5% to 1.5%+ to your tax rate
• Can last 20-40 years
• Many buyers don’t realize they’re paying this on top of regular property taxes

PID (Public Improvement District):

• Finances community amenities, roads, landscaping
• Separate assessment on your tax bill
• Also lasts decades

The Lakeway Estates Advantage:

NO MUD, NO PID means:

• Lower total tax burden
• No hidden long-term assessments
• Cleaner title when you sell
• More predictable monthly costs

Let’s compare:

Lakeway Estates $550,000 home with NO MUD/PID:

• Base tax rate ~2.3-2.5%
• Annual taxes: ~$12,650-13,750
• Monthly: ~$1,054-1,146

Comparable 1-acre new construction WITH MUD/PID:

• Base rate 2.3% + MUD 1.0% + PID $1,200/year
• Annual taxes: ~$19,350
• Monthly: ~$1,613

That’s $450-560/month difference. Over 30 years, that’s $162,000-$201,600.

My Centre Living Relationship Advantage:

Here’s where having a direct relationship with the builder matters:

✅ Early inventory knowledge – I know what’s coming before it hits public MLS
✅ Builder rapport – My clients get prioritized communication and support
✅ Incentive intel – I know when Centre Living is offering special financing, upgrades, or closing cost credits before they’re publicly advertised
✅ Smoother transactions – Direct builder contact means faster answers and problem resolution
✅ Post-close support – Builder relationships continue after you close, helping with warranty issues or questions

I don’t have the same relationship with Chesmar. If you’re buying their $700K+ homes, I’ll represent you professionally, but I can’t provide the same insider advantages I offer with Centre Living.

The Strategic Play:

Lakeway Estates is testing whether there’s a market segment that values:

• Space over density (1-acre lots vs. 60×125 lots)
• Lake proximity over resort pools (natural recreation vs. manufactured amenities)
• Tax efficiency over luxury finishes (NO MUD/PID vs. higher-end features)
• Small community feel over massive master-planned scale (intimate vs. 1,200+ homes)

If those priorities resonate with you, and you’re in the Centre Living price range ($475K-$625K), I can give you advantages that buying direct or using another agent simply won’t provide.

That’s not marketing speak. That’s the tangible value of strategic builder relationships.

THE MARKET DYNAMICS: What These Four Experiments Reveal About Ellis County

When you step back and look at these four experiments simultaneously, patterns emerge that tell you where the Ellis County market is heading.

Pattern #1: Price Stratification Is Accelerating

The Market Is Segregating Into Clear Tiers:

Under $400K – Value/First-Time Buyer Territory:

• Impression Homes at Myrtle Creek: $326K-$470K
• UnionMain at Myrtle Creek: Similar range
• Entry-level new construction targeting $75K-$100K household incomes

$400K-$600K – Core Market Sweet Spot:

• Perry Homes, Highland Homes, David Weekley at Myrtle Creek
• Centre Living at Lakeway Estates: $475K-$625K
• Ridge Crossing: $490K-$650K
• Targeting $100K-$150K household incomes
• This is where 60%+ of Ellis County buyers compete

$600K+ – Move-Up/Executive Territory:

• Upper-tier Perry Homes at Myrtle Creek: $599K-$738K
• Chesmar at Lakeway Estates: $649K-$849K
• Highland Homes larger plans at Ridge Crossing: $600K+
• Targeting $150K+ household incomes

What This Means:

The builders have identified three distinct buyer segments and are building specifically for each. If you’re shopping across tiers (looking at $425K AND $625K homes), you’re probably unclear about your actual budget and priorities.

Strategic buyers pick their tier and optimize within it.

Pattern #2: Amenity Packages Matter More Than Ever

The Data Shows Two Buyer Camps Emerging:

Camp 1: “Give Me ALL The Amenities”

• Willing to pay Myrtle Creek pricing ($375K-$550K)
• Values lazy river, pools, events, community lifestyle
• Smaller lots (60×125 typical) are acceptable tradeoff
• Wants neighbors and activity

Camp 2: “Give Me SPACE And Privacy”

• Willing to pay Lakeway Estates pricing ($475K-$625K)
• Values 1-acre lots and lake access
• Doesn’t need manufactured amenities
• Wants separation and quiet

Neither camp is right or wrong, they’re just different buyer psychologies.

But here’s what matters: Know which camp you’re in BEFORE you start shopping. I’ve seen too many buyers torture themselves comparing Myrtle Creek to Lakeway Estates when they’re fundamentally different products for different lifestyles.

If you don’t know which camp you’re in, we need to talk BEFORE you waste time touring homes.

Pattern #3: Tax Rates Are Becoming A Major Differentiator

The Hidden Cost That Builders Are Using As Competitive Advantage:

Ridge Crossing advertises its 2.05% tax rate prominently. Lakeway Estates leads with NO MUD/NO PID. These aren’t accidents, builders know that savvy buyers are doing total cost of ownership math, not just looking at purchase price.

The Buyer Evolution:

2020-2022 Buyer: “Can I afford the monthly payment at 3% interest?”

2024-2026 Buyer: “What’s my ALL-IN monthly cost including taxes, insurance, HOA, AND MUD/PID, at 6.5% interest?”

The smart builders are positioning on TOTAL COST, not just sticker price.

Pattern #4: School District Still Trumps Everything

Notice what ALL four experiments have in common?

They’re ALL in Waxahachie ISD.

That’s not coincidence. Waxahachie ISD is rated B+ overall with strong academics, and it’s the acceptable threshold for families relocating from North Dallas suburbs.

If these developments were in lower-rated districts, the pricing would drop 15-20% overnight. School ratings aren’t everything, but they’re the FOUNDATION everything else builds on.

Strategic implication: If you’re buying for resale value, school district rating is non-negotiable. If you’re buying for lifestyle and don’t have school-age kids, you might find better value in non-premium districts.

---

THE INTELLIGENCE GAP: What Most Agents Won’t Tell You About These Communities

Let me give you insider intelligence that most agents either don’t know or won’t share, because honestly, most agents don’t do the work to understand builder dynamics, community positioning, or long-term value drivers.

Intelligence #1: Builder Incentives Are More Valuable Than Price Reductions

Here’s how builders actually operate:

When a builder needs to move inventory, they would rather give you $20,000 in upgrades, closing cost credits, or rate buy-downs than reduce the purchase price by $20,000.

Why?

Because the comparable sale that gets recorded shows the HIGHER price, which supports their pricing for future sales in the community.

Example:

Scenario A: Builder reduces price from $475K to $455K

• You save $20K
• But every future comparable now shows homes selling for $455K
• Builder’s remaining inventory value drops

Scenario B: Builder keeps price at $475K but gives you:

• $10K in flooring/countertop upgrades
• $7K in closing cost credits
• $3K rate buy-down for first year
• You get $20K in value
• Comps still show $475K sales price
• Builder protects pricing

Strategic Play:

When negotiating with builders, push for incentives, not price reductions. You get equal or better value, and you’re not fighting against comparable sales when you go to sell.

At Myrtle Creek and Ridge Crossing, builders rotate incentive packages monthly. Sometimes it’s upgraded appliances, sometimes closing costs, sometimes temporary rate buy-downs. The agents who track these cycles get their clients 5-10% more value.

Most agents just say “the price is the price.” I say “the price is negotiable, but incentives are where the real value is.”

Intelligence #2: Lot Premium Pricing Varies WILDLY

Not all lots in a community cost the same: but builders don’t advertise this clearly.

Lot Premium Factors:

• Greenbelt/conservation area backing: +$10K-$25K
• Cul-de-sac location: +$5K-$15K
• Oversized lot: +$15K-$40K
• Corner lot: Usually $0-$5K (despite what you’d think)
• Interior lot facing another house: Base price

At Lakeway Estates, lot premiums range from $0 to $35K+ depending on positioning.

Strategic Play:

If you’re flexible on WHEN you build (not buying a spec home), you can save $15K-$30K by selecting a base-price lot and waiting 3-4 months for construction versus paying premium for a greenbelt lot that’s ready now.

Most buyers don’t even know to ask about lot premiums. I walk every community, map the lots, and tell my clients exactly what they’re paying for.

Intelligence #3: The “Model Home Discount” Is Usually A Trap

Builders offer model homes at “discounts”, typically $30K-$50K off with $100K+ in upgrades included.

Sounds amazing, right?

Here’s the trap:

• Model has been walked through by thousands of people
• Flooring shows wear, appliances have been demo’d, fixtures touched constantly
• Builder “discount” is calculated against inflated upgrade values
• $100K in “upgrades” might only cost builder $45K wholesale
• Your actual savings? Maybe $15K-$25K on a used home

When model home deals ARE good:

• Community is closing out (builder desperate to exit)
• Model is recent (under 6 months old, minimal traffic)
• You actually WANT all the upgrades (not just paying for builder’s showcase choices)

Strategic Play:

I’ve negotiated model home deals that were legitimate 12-15% savings. But most model home “deals” are 3-5% off retail on a worn-out display home. Know the difference.

Intelligence #4: New Construction Isn’t Always “New”

Builders classify homes as “new construction” or “quick move-in” even when they’ve been completed for 8-12 months.

Why?

Because calling it “inventory home” or “spec home that didn’t sell” sounds desperate.

Questions to ask:

• When was this home completed?
• How long has it been on the market?
• Why hasn’t it sold?
• Are there any issues with the lot, location, or floor plan that made previous buyers pass?

I’ve seen “new construction” homes at Myrtle Creek and Ridge Crossing that were completed 10 months ago. That’s not new, that’s AGED INVENTORY.

And if it’s aged inventory, the builder is motivated. Which means it’s negotiable.

Most agents don’t ask these questions. I do. Because my job isn’t to help builders move inventory, it’s to get my clients the best possible value.

---

STRATEGIC POSITIONING: How To Use This Intelligence

Whether you’re buying or selling in Ellis County right now, understanding these four experiments gives you advantages others lack.

If You’re Buying New Construction:

Step 1: Identify Your Priority Tier

Don’t shop across multiple tiers – it creates decision paralysis and wastes everyone’s time.

Are you a:

• Value buyer ($300K-$425K): Focus on Impression/UnionMain at Myrtle Creek, possibly entry-level elsewhere
• Core market buyer ($425K-$600K): Myrtle Creek mid-tier (Perry/Highland/David Weekley), Centre Living at Lakeway Estates, Ridge Crossing
• Move-up buyer ($600K+): Upper Myrtle Creek (Perry premium), Chesmar at Lakeway Estates

Once you know your tier, STAY IN IT. Comparing a $350K Impression home to a $550K Perry home is pointless – they’re not competing products.

Step 2: Define Your Lifestyle Priority

The Amenity Seeker:
→ Myrtle Creek is your laboratory
→ Accept smaller lots for resort lifestyle
→ Optimize within your price tier across the seven builders

The Space & Privacy Seeker:
→ Lakeway Estates is your laboratory
→ Accept fewer community amenities for acre lots and lake access
→ If you’re in the $475K-$625K range, I have Centre Living advantages to offer

The Location Premium Seeker:
→ Ridge Crossing is your laboratory
→ Pay for Highland/DRB reputation + school proximity + low tax rate
→ Understand you’re paying 10-15% more than Myrtle Creek for exclusivity

Step 3: Leverage Builder Competition

At Myrtle Creek:

• Get quotes from 3+ builders for comparable floor plans
• Use competitive bids to negotiate better incentives
• Ask each builder what the others are offering
• Walk the model homes on the SAME DAY so you can directly compare

At Ridge Crossing:

• Highland and DRB are direct competitors
• If one offers incentives, the other will match within days
• Time your purchase when inventory ages (60-90 days on market = negotiation window)

At Lakeway Estates:

• If you’re Centre Living tier ($475K-$625K), use me – my relationship provides tangible value
• If you’re Chesmar tier ($650K+), I’ll represent you professionally but can’t offer the same insider advantages
• Understand that NO MUD/NO PID is worth $150-200 monthly vs. comparable communities

Step 4: Master The Timing Game

Best times to buy new construction:

• Month-end/Quarter-end: Sales teams have quotas, builders get flexible
• Aged inventory (90+ days completed): Builder is carrying costs, motivation increases
• End of fiscal year (varies by builder): Inventory reduction becomes priority
• When rates drop: Builders reduce incentives when demand increases (buy BEFORE rate drops if possible)

Worst times:

• Spring market (March-May): Maximum competition, minimum negotiation
• Right after rate drops: Demand surge eliminates negotiation leverage
• Grand opening events: Marketing hype, minimal actual deals

THE FORECAST: What These Experiments Tell Us About Ellis County 2026-2030

Based on these four active experiments and their early results, here’s what the data predicts for Ellis County:

Prediction #1: We’re Adding 30,000-40,000 New Residents By 2030

The Math:

• South Creek Ranch: 5,000-8,000 homes over 10-15 years = 15,000-24,000 residents
• Myrtle Creek: 1,263 acres at 3-4 homes/acre = 3,800-5,000 homes = 11,400-15,000 residents
• Ridge Crossing + Lakeway Estates + other communities: 2,000-3,000 additional homes = 6,000-9,000 residents

Conservative estimate: 32,000-48,000 new residents in Ellis County by 2030.

What This Means:

• Every school in Waxahachie ISD will be at or over capacity
• Infrastructure will be strained (traffic, utilities, services)
• Retail and commercial development will accelerate to serve new population
• Existing home values will appreciate as demand outpaces resale supply
• Early movers capture the value appreciation; late movers pay the premium

Prediction #2: Price Appreciation Will Moderate But Remain Strong

The 40-50% appreciation of 2020-2024 won’t repeat, but expect 4-6% annual appreciation through 2028 in Ellis County specifically (above the national 2-3% forecast).

Why Ellis County outperforms:

• Job growth from South Creek Ranch commercial development
• Population influx continuing
• Infrastructure investment attracting additional corporate interest
• Still 20-30% cheaper than comparable North Dallas suburbs

What This Means:

$450K home today = $540K-$575K by 2028-2029. Not explosive, but solid long-term value. Buy for lifestyle and long-term hold, not short-term flipping.

Prediction #3: The Builder Landscape Will Consolidate

Current State: 10-15 active builders in Ellis County

2028 State: 6-8 dominant builders control 80%+ of new construction

What Happens:

• Smaller/regional builders get squeezed out or acquired
• National brands (Perry, Highland, David Weekley, DR Horton) dominate
• Pricing power consolidates with fewer competitors
• Buyer negotiation leverage decreases as builder options shrink

Strategic Implication:

The current multi-builder competition at Myrtle Creek won’t last forever. Within 3-5 years, 2-3 builders will likely exit the community, reducing buyer options and negotiation leverage.

Buy while competition is fierce, not after consolidation reduces your choices.

Prediction #4: Amenity Expectations Will Become The Standard

By 2028, buyers will EXPECT:

• Resort-style pools
• Multiple parks and trails
• Community events programming
• On-site lifestyle management

Communities without these amenities will trade at 8-12% discounts to communities with them.

The Exception: Land/acreage communities like Lakeway Estates where space is the amenity. This buyer segment remains stable at 15-20% of market.

Prediction #5: Tax Rate Differentiation Will Accelerate

As MUD/PID obligations come due in older developments and new developments add these assessments, total tax burden variance between communities will widen from 15% today to 25-30% by 2028.

Communities advertising NO MUD/NO PID (like Lakeway Estates) will command 5-8% price premiums as buyers become more sophisticated about total cost of ownership.

What This Means:

Tax rate will become a PRIMARY decision factor, not an afterthought. Buyers will comparison shop total monthly cost, not just purchase price.

---

THE TRUTH ABOUT HAWKINS LAB: Intelligence Is Your Competitive Advantage

In Stranger Things, Hawkins Lab was portrayed as sinister, secretive experiments, government cover-ups, children exploited for power.

Real estate development isn’t that dramatic (usually), but it IS powerful, it DOES reshape communities permanently, and it absolutely creates winners and losers based on who understands what’s happening and who doesn’t.

The truth is: these Hawkins Labs, these developers and builders experimenting across Ellis County, aren’t villains. They’re responding to market forces, solving housing supply problems, and yes, making significant profits by taking substantial risks.

But that doesn’t mean their interests align perfectly with yours.

Their goal: Maximize sales velocity and profit margins while minimizing risk.

Your goal: Get the best possible value for your situation while minimizing YOUR risk.

Sometimes those goals align. Sometimes they don’t.

The strategic advantage goes to whoever has better information.

And right now, most buyers and sellers in Ellis County don’t fully understand:

• The SCALE of what’s being built (South Creek Ranch alone reshapes everything)
• The DYNAMICS of multi-builder competition (Myrtle Creek’s seven-builder war)
• The HIDDEN COSTS of MUD/PID taxation (hundreds of thousands over 30 years)
• The VALUE of builder relationships (my Centre Living access at Lakeway Estates)
• The TIMING strategies that save 5-10% (aged inventory, month-end quotas, incentive cycles)

That’s the intelligence gap.

And that’s exactly what I’m here to close.

WHY THIS MATTERS FOR YOUR REAL ESTATE DECISION

If you’re buying new construction in Ellis County:

You need someone who:

✅ Tracks builder incentive cycles across all communities
✅ Understands lot premium pricing and negotiation leverage points
✅ Has direct relationships with builders (like my Centre Living connection)
✅ Knows which “deals” are actually deals vs. builder marketing
✅ Can position you strategically based on YOUR priorities (amenities vs. space, location vs. price, lifestyle vs. investment)

Most agents just unlock doors and submit offers. I provide INTELLIGENCE.

If you’re selling an existing home:

You need someone who:

• ✅ Understands exactly what new construction you’re competing against
• ✅ Can position your home’s advantages without overpricing into irrelevance
• ✅ Knows which buyers are specifically seeking existing homes vs. new construction
• ✅ Can advise whether to sell now or wait based on competitive supply dynamics

If you’re investing or planning for long-term value:

You need someone who:

• ✅ Tracks infrastructure investment that signals future appreciation
• ✅ Understands school district trajectories and their impact on values
• ✅ Can forecast which communities will outperform based on developer track records
• ✅ Recognizes early-stage opportunities before they’re obvious

That’s not every agent. That’s ME.

COMING UP IN EPISODE 5: CLOSING THE GATE

We’ve explored the portal opening (Episode 1), Vecna’s mortgage curse (Episode 2), the Mind Flayer’s economic web (Episode 3), and now Hawkins Lab’s experiments (Episode 4).

In our final episode, we bring it all together with your strategic game plan for conquering the 2026 Ellis County market.

We’ll cover:

• Your exact action plan whether you’re buying, selling, or waiting
• The specific timing windows that create maximum advantage in early 2026
• How to leverage everything from this series into actual decisions
• The questions to ask before making any real estate move
• How to close the gate on uncertainty and take control of your future

This isn’t theory. This is your playbook for winning in the Ellis County market while everyone else is still trying to figure out what happened.

Because unlike the characters in Stranger Things who stumbled into the Upside Down by accident, YOU have the intelligence to navigate this market with eyes wide open.

You understand how we got here (the portal).
You understand what’s trapping people (Vecna’s curse).
You understand who’s pulling the strings (the Mind Flayer).
You understand who’s reshaping reality (Hawkins Lab).

Now it’s time to close the gate and execute.

---

Episode 5 drops tomorrow. Subscribe at northtexasmarketinsider.com so you don’t miss it.

Want to discuss how these Hawkins Lab experiments specifically impact YOUR real estate situation? Ready to leverage my builder relationships and market intelligence?

Let’s talk strategy.

---

Bobby Franklin, REALTOR®
Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team
📲 214-228-0003 | northtexasmarketinsider.com

Disclaimer: This article uses Stranger Things as a cultural reference point for educational and commentary purposes. Stranger Things is a trademark of Netflix. This content is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Netflix or the creators of Stranger Things. All analysis and opinions are solely those of the author.