Why Smart Money is Moving Here Now
“While everyone else is watching the news, I’m watching the opportunities.”
The Intelligence Brief: What Others Are Missing
Here’s what the headlines won’t tell you: Dallas-Fort Worth just claimed the #1 spot as America’s hottest real estate market for 2025. Not San Francisco. Not New York. Not Miami. DFW. The Dallas-Fort Worth area is poised to be the hottest real estate market in the nation for investment and development for 2025, according to a new Emerging Trends in Real Estate report, which compiled data from more than 2,000 industry experts.(Report)
But here’s the insider move: Five of the nation’s top 10 real estate markets for 2025 are within Dallas-Fort Worth, and a Collin County city sits at the top of the list. McKinney took the top spot. Smart money isn’t just coming to DFW, it’s targeting specific submarkets that 90% of agents don’t even understand.
The Ellis County Advantage: Hidden in Plain Sight
While everyone’s fighting over Frisco and Plano, the real opportunity is in Ellis County. There are 1,738 homes for sale in Ellis County with a median price of $426,721, which is an increase of +4.0% since last year. Translation: You’re getting premium North Texas access at a 40% discount compared to the hyped markets.
Strategic Reality Check: There are 520 homes for sale in Waxahachie with a median price of $410,225. That’s $300,000+ LESS than comparable homes in McKinney or Frisco. This isn’t a “budget option.” This is strategic positioning for maximum appreciation.
The Corporate Migration Tsunami: Follow the Money
Between 2018 and 2024, over 100 companies announced their moves to North Texas, more than any other metropolitan area in the country. But here’s what your current agent isn’t telling you: In 2024 alone, 96 companies announced HQ moves, up from just 18 in 2023. (Corporate Relocations)
The Multiplier Effect: Every corporate headquarters brings 500-2,000 employees, every employee needs housing and every executive needs premium housing. Every company needs suppliers, contractors, and service providers and they all need housing too.
Major Players Already in Motion:
- Fisher Investments: relocated its corporate HQ from Camas, Washington to Plano (1,200 employees in Plano)
- Frontier Communications: announced that it will be relocating its corporate headquarters from Norwalk, CT to Dallas
- Samsung: Samsung has said the facility, announced in 2021, is scheduled to open at the end of this year
Strategic Intelligence: California lost the most HQs in 2024, with 17 companies leaving, 12 of them bound for Texas. This isn’t a trend, it’s a permanent economic shift. (Calexit)
Market Dynamics: The Smart Money Strategy
Current Market Reality (September 2025):
Interest Rates: Mortgage Rates: Averaging 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and estimated drop to 6.1% in the first part of 2026. Here’s the strategic play: Rates are peaking NOW. Early 2026 buyers will pay more for the same properties with marginally lower rates as home values increase due to heavier demand.
Inventory Intelligence: Inventory levels have been steadily climbing, giving buyers more options and reducing competition. As of May 2025, the inventory is at 5.5 months’ supply, up from a mere 4.3 months last year.(DFW Inventory)
Translation: This is a buyer’s market masquerading as neutral. Smart buyers are positioning NOW.
The Ellis County Sweet Spot:
In May 2025, Ellis County home prices were up 4.0% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $418K. On average, homes in Ellis County sell after 64 days on the market compared to 52 days last year.
Strategic Advantage: Longer market times = negotiation power. Price appreciation = equity building. This is the Goldilocks zone where smart buyers can fleece sellers for lower prices or even rate buy downs.
Neighborhood Intelligence: Where to Position
Tier 1: Executive Positioning
Waxahachie Historic Districts
- Median home value: $410,225
- Strategic Value: Historic charm with modern appreciation.
- Executive Draw: 30-minute commute to downtown Dallas.
- Investment Thesis: Limited supply, growing demand from corporate relocations.
Tier 2: Family Command Centers
Midlothian/Red Oak Corridor
- School District: Midlothian ISD (top-rated school district)
- Strategic Value: Master-planned communities at 30% below Collin County pricing.
- Growth Catalyst: Major developments incoming along Highway 67.
Tier 3: Emerging Value Plays
Ferris/Palmer Development Zone
- Intelligence: 5,200 acres purchased for major development.
- Timeline: 2-3 years before mainstream attention.
- Risk/Reward: Highest appreciation potential, moderate timeline risk.
Tier 4: Luxury Positioning
Glenn Heights/DeSoto Border
- Market Position: Executive homes, premium locations.
- Strategic Advantage: Dallas County taxes, Ellis County pricing.(county taxes are MUCH cheaper than city taxes)
- Target Market: Corporate executives wanting immediate luxury.
The Strategic Relocation Framework
Phase 1: Market Entry Strategy (First 12 Months)
Rent-First Intelligence Play: the median rent for a three-bedroom home in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex is approximately $2,430, a 3% increase from the previous year. (DFW Median Rent)
Strategic Rental Targets:
- Waxahachie: $1,800-2,200/month for executive housing.
- Midlothian: $2,000-2,400/month in master-planned communities.
- Red Oak: $1,600-2,000/month for family-friendly options.
Phase 2: Equity Optimization Strategy
Out-of-State Seller’s Playbook:
- Market Timing: List during spring peak season (March-May).
- Equity Bridge: Secure Texas lender relationships for smooth transfers.
- Tax Strategy: Understand Texas homestead exemption benefits.
- Closing Coordination: 45-60 day timeline for optimal positioning.
Texas Homestead Advantage: Unlimited homestead exemption = complete primary residence protection. California and New York can’t match this security.
Cost Analysis: The Real Numbers
Texas Tax Reality:
- State Income Tax: $0 (vs. up to 13.3% in California)
- Property Tax: 2.0-2.5% (but offset by homestead exemption)
- Sales Tax: 8.25% average (competitive with coastal states)
Cost Comparison Matrix:
| Category | Ellis County | Frisco/Plano | California Equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Home | $418,000 | $650,000 | $1,200,000 |
| Property Tax | $8,360/year | $13,000/year | $15,000/year |
| State Income Tax | $0 | $0 | $25,000/year* |
| Utilities | $180/month | $220/month | $280/month |
Strategic Reality: Ellis County delivers 70% of the lifestyle benefits at 35% of the cost.
Market Intelligence: What’s Coming
Development Pipeline (2025-2027):
Confirmed Projects:
- Ferris Development: 5,200 acres =Businesses driving up equity on 15,000+ new homes.
- Highway 287 Expansion: Improved access to Dallas.
- DART Extension Studies: Public transit expansion plans.
Corporate Expansion:
- Companies like Toyota and PepsiCo have announced further expansions in Plano. These expansions could bring thousands of new jobs to the area.
- Samsung Taylor Facility: Samsung has said the facility, announced in 2021, is scheduled to open at the end of that year, though reports have indicated mass production won’t begin until 2025.
Strategic Implication: Housing demand will increase 20-30% before supply catches up.
School District Intelligence
Waxahachie ISD:
- State Rating: Meets Standards. (improving trajectory)
- Strategic Value: Significant investment in facilities and programs.
- Demographics: Growing diversity with rising test scores.
Midlothian ISD:
- State Rating: Exemplary.
- Strategic Value: Consistently top-rated, strong property value support.
- Growth Management: Planned expansion for incoming families.(Midlothian ISD)
Red Oak ISD:
- State Rating: Meets Standards. (strong improvement trend)
- Strategic Value: Smaller district, more personalized attention.
- Investment: New facilities and technology upgrades.
Quality of Life Matrix
Climate Reality:
- Advantages: Mild winters, abundant sunshine, offset by brutal summer heat.
- Management: Ellis County is expected to see a 242% increase in the number of days over 110ºF over the next 30 years.(Texas Heat Projections)
- Strategic Response: Modern homes with superior HVAC and energy-efficient design.
Cultural Access:
- Professional Sports: Cowboys, Mavericks, Rangers, Stars, Wings and FC Dallas.
- Arts: Dallas Arts District, Fort Worth Cultural District, Bishop Arts District.
- Entertainment: State Fair of Texas, Fort Worth Stockyards, many more.
- Food: Authentic BBQ, international cuisine, craft breweries.
Recreation Infrastructure:
- Lakes: Grapevine Lake, Lake Lavon, Lake Lewsiville, Joe Pool Lake, Cedar Creek Lake and many more for boating/swimming and summer water recreation all within 45min drive time.
- Parks: 400+ parks in Dallas County alone.
- Golf: Championship courses throughout the region.
- Events: Waxahachie Scarborough Renaissance Festival, Ellis County Fair.
Risk Assessment: What They Won’t Tell You
Market Risks:
- Interest Rate Sensitivity: Rising rates could slow appreciation, dropping rates could accelerate home values again.
- Corporate Exodus: Economic downturn could reverse corporate migration, economic boom could significantly increase migration away from corporate tax-heavy states.
- Infrastructure Lag: Growth may outpace road/utility development
Risk Mitigation:
- Location Selection: Choose areas with confirmed infrastructure investment for stability and equity growth.
- Property Type: Focus on single-family homes in established neighborhoods, mobile homes and manufactured homes lose value over time compared to single family homes that GAIN value over time.
- Financial Planning: Conservative debt-to-income ratios for market flexibility.
Climate Considerations:
- Heat Management: Budget $250-400/month for summer cooling.
- Weather Events: Tornado risk. (manageable with proper insurance)
- Flood Zones: Some areas are severely affected by flooding over the next 30 years, your agent can help you avoid these areas. These flood zones represent 6% of all properties in Ellis County.
The Strategic Action Plan
Your Agent Should Be Doing the Following :
Immediate Actions (Next 30 Days):
- Market Intelligence: Subscribe to local development newsletters.
- Financial Pre-Approval: Secure Texas lender relationships.
- Rental Research: Identify 3-5 strategic rental growth areas.
- School Analysis: Review district performance and enrollment procedures.
Phase 1 Execution (Days 30-90):
- Property Tours: Strategically evaluate neighborhoods.
- Local Partnerships: Connect you with tax advisors, insurance agents.
- Community Integration: Gather information on local events and HOA meetings.
- Market Monitoring: Track inventory and pricing trends.
Phase 2 Optimization (Days 90-365):
- Purchase Strategy: Execute based on market intelligence.
- Equity Maximization: Optimize current property sale timing.
- Tax Optimization: Help you establish Texas residency for maximum benefits.
- Network Building: Help you develop professional and social connections.
The Bottom Line: Why Now?
Market Convergence: 3 massive trends are colliding in North Texas:
- Corporate Migration: Unprecedented business relocation.
- Interest Rate Peak: Current rates likely at cycle high, due for a downturn.
- Inventory Balance: Optimal buyer negotiation environment until rates drop below 6% on conventional.
Ellis County Specific Advantages:
- Value Gap: 30-40% below comparable markets, with equal or better quality.
- Growth Pipeline: Major developments incoming across southern DFW.
- Quality Infrastructure: Established utilities and transportation.
- Educational Investment: Constantly improving school districts that are already highly rated.
Strategic Window: The next 18 months represent the optimal entry point. Once interest rates drop below 6% and corporate relocations accelerate, pricing will reset 15-25% higher.
Your Strategic Advantage
Most people relocate reactively. Smart money relocates strategically. The difference? Market intelligence, timing optimization, and local expertise.
This isn’t just about finding a house. This is about positioning yourself in America’s fastest-growing economic region at the optimal entry point for maximum long-term value creation.
The Question: Are you going to follow the crowd to overpriced markets, or are you going to follow the smart money to Ellis County?
The choice is yours. The opportunity is now. The strategic advantage is clear.
Welcome to your North Texas strategy. Welcome to your future.
📊 Your North Texas market intel source
🎯 Text 214-228-0003 for insider updates
Bobby Franklin – REALTOR®
Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team
Serving Ellis County & DFW
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