New Redfin Data Confirms a Historic Shift in the U.S. Mortgage Market. Here’s What It Means for DFW Buyers, Sellers, and the Inventory Equation in 2026.
Something just happened in the U.S. mortgage market that hasn’t happened in five years.
For the first time since Q3 2020, more American homeowners carry a mortgage rate above 6% than carry one below 3%. According to Redfin’s analysis of FHFA National Mortgage Database data, 21.2% of mortgaged homeowners held a rate at 6% or higher in Q3 2025, the largest share since 2015. Meanwhile, the share carrying a sub-3% rate fell to 20.0%, the lowest level since late 2021.
One number just crossed another number, and the entire psychology of the housing market shifted with it.
This is not a rate headline. This is not another “mortgage rates are doing this today” article. This is the data point that explains why North Texas inventory is rising faster than the national average, why more sellers are finally coming off the sideline, and why the strategic window for buyers who have been waiting is both opening and closing at the same time.
The lock-in era that froze this market for three years is ending. The question isn’t whether to act. It’s whether you understand the sequence of events that follows and whether you’re positioned ahead of it or behind it.
I’m going to walk you through the data, the mechanism, and what it means on the ground in Ellis County and the broader DFW market. Because this is the kind of shift that changes the game before most people realize the game has changed.
What the Lock-In Effect Actually Was And Why It Mattered
To understand why this crossover moment is significant, you have to understand what the lock-in effect actually did to this market.
During 2020–2022, a historic window of sub-3% mortgage rates opened briefly and then slammed shut. Millions of homeowners refinanced or purchased at rates that, in the context of 50 years of mortgage history, were essentially free money. A 2.75% 30-year fixed mortgage isn’t just a low rate, it’s a once-in-a-generation asset that sits on your balance sheet for up to 30 years.
Then, between March 2022 and late 2023, the Federal Reserve executed the fastest rate hiking cycle in four decades. The 30-year fixed mortgage went from 3.2% to over 7.7%, a move of more than 4.5 percentage points in roughly 20 months. The FHFA estimated this created a financial penalty for moving that, at its peak, cost the average homeowner with a sub-3% rate approximately $500+ per month in additional mortgage payments just to stay in a comparable home.
The result was predictable. Homeowners didn’t sell. Inventory collapsed. Buyers competed over scraps. Prices stayed elevated despite dramatically reduced transaction volume. The market seized up.
Redfin’s own data quantified the suppression: the lock-in effect prevented an estimated 1.72 million home sales between Q2 2022 and Q2 2024. That’s 1.72 million transactions that didn’t happen. 1.72 million families that didn’t move when life said they should.
That was the lock-in era. And it’s now beginning to end.
The Crossover: Why the Numbers Just Changed Everything
Here’s what’s actually driving the shift, because it’s not just about rates falling, it’s about the composition of the mortgage market changing quarter by quarter.
Every time someone buys a home at a 6%+ rate, the share of 6%+ mortgages grows. Every time a low-rate homeowner eventually sells, for a job, for a divorce, for a death in the family, for retirement, for school districts, that sub-3% mortgage disappears from the pool. The transition from a majority low-rate market to a majority high-rate market starts slowly, then seems to happen all at once.
The trajectory has been relentless:
- The 6%+ share was just 2.6% in Q2 2022, when rates first spiked
- It climbed to 8.5% by Q4 2022
- Hit 17.1% by Q3 2024
- Reached 21.2% by Q3 2025 – the highest since 2015
Meanwhile, the sub-3% share has been shrinking in a mirror image:
- Peaked at 24.6% in Q1 2022
- Fell to roughly 22% by Q4 2023
- Declined to 20.0% by Q3 2025 – the lowest since late 2021
ICE Mortgage Technology independently confirms that roughly 39 million homeowners entered 2025 with rates below 5%, and approximately 12 million remain below 3%. But the trend line is unambiguous. Each quarter, the balance shifts.
The crossover matters psychologically and practically. When a homeowner with a 6.5% rate considers selling to buy another home at 5.98%, the payment difference is minimal. The financial trap that paralyzed millions of would-be sellers in 2022–2023 simply doesn’t apply to them. They’re not locked in. They’re free to move when life calls for it.
And life with its job changes, family growth, downsizing, relocation, divorce, and even death doesn’t stop calling just because mortgage rates are inconvenient.
“The Lock-In Effect Is Fading” in Redfin’s Own Words
I want to be precise here, because the data tells a nuanced story that deserves more than a hot take.
Redfin’s head of economics research Chen Zhao states directly in the Q3 2025 report: the lock-in effect is fading. Her analysis notes that life events are “starting to outweigh the financial benefit of clinging to a rock-bottom mortgage rate” for a growing share of homeowners. A Redfin/Ipsos survey found that while 16% of homeowners say they’re staying put specifically to protect their low rate, that reason ranked only fifth among motivations for not selling.
First American’s Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi confirmed that the lock-in effect peaked in late 2023 and has been easing since, with states where outstanding rates have moved closer to current market rates showing the strongest sales recovery.
But here’s the honest read, because I’m not going to sell you a narrative that isn’t fully supported: the lock-in hasn’t evaporated. 51.5% of outstanding U.S. mortgages still carry rates at 4% or below. That means more than half of all mortgaged homeowners still face a meaningful financial penalty if they sell and buy at today’s rates. The lock-in effect isn’t dead, it’s past its peak and declining, which is a very different thing.
Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen put it precisely: “The lock-in effect is still a factor and will be a factor for many years. But each day it fades a little bit.”
That daily fading is what’s driving the inventory recovery. And nowhere is it more visible than North Texas.
Why North Texas Is the Canary in the Coal Mine
The lock-in effect doesn’t dissolve evenly across the country. It dissolves fastest where three conditions converge: new construction has added supply, equity gains gave sellers financial flexibility, and in-migration pressure has meant more homeowners purchased recently at market rates rather than during the pandemic refinance window.
North Texas checks all three boxes and then some.
Inventory Already Exceeds Pre-Pandemic Levels
DFW active listings reached approximately 29,185 homes in November 2025, up 12% year-over-year, according to MetroTex Association of Realtors data. DFW had the fourth-largest inventory increase among the 50 largest U.S. metro areas as of mid-2025. Several suburban counties including Rockwall, Kaufman, and parts of Ellis County are already running at over 6 months of supply, which is textbook buyer’s market territory.
This isn’t a coincidence. It’s the lock-in effect unwinding faster in a market defined by massive new construction and in-migration. Every new construction home sold at a 6%+ rate is a homeowner not locked in. Every Californian or Utahn who relocated to North Texas in 2023–2024 and bought at 7% is a potential seller who faces no financial penalty for moving again. The composition of North Texas homeownership skews newer and less locked in than the national average.
Texas Set Records for New Listings in 2025
The Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center published research showing Texas recorded approximately 596,000 new listings in 2025 setting a state record, up 9.4% year-over-year. The two-year 2024–2025 total exceeded 1.1 million new listings. Their researchers noted that even with rates above 6%, existing homeowners drove the surge, indicating that life events and market psychology are increasingly overriding the lock-in calculus.
The research center is clear on the implication: the lock-in grip in Texas is loosening, and the data is already in the listings counts, not just in projections.
Prices Are Softening – Which Means Buyer Leverage Is Real
The S&P Case-Shiller Index showed Dallas home prices fell approximately 1.5% year-over-year through late 2025, among the weakest performances of the 20 cities tracked. In direct contrast to the national trend of modest appreciation. Fort Worth median sale prices dropped over 6% year-over-year to approximately $318,000 in late 2025. Homes in DFW took 67–79 days to sell which is well above the national average and the majority sold below list price.
Statewide, seller concessions averaged over $17,000 or roughly 5% of the asking price. That’s not a distressed market. That’s a balanced market where buyers have leverage they haven’t had since 2019.
This is the direct consequence of the lock-in effect fading faster locally than nationally. More sellers entering the market equals more competition among sellers, which equals negotiating power for buyers who are ready to move.
The Psychology Shift: What This Means for Sellers Who’ve Been Waiting
There is a significant population of homeowners in North Texas, and across the country, who have been telling themselves the same story for three years: I’ll sell when rates come back down. I’ll sell when the market feels right. I’ll sell when I don’t have to give up my 2.875%.
The data says that story is becoming harder to sustain for two reasons.
First, rates are moving, but not back to where they were. The 30-year fixed just touched 5.98% according to Freddie Mac, the lowest since September 2022. The consensus forecast from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors puts 2026 rates in the low 6% to high 5% range. A return to 3%–4% rates would require an economic dislocation severe enough that no rational homeowner would want to sell into it anyway.
Second, life events don’t pause for rate cycles. The homeowner who bought in 2021 with a 2.5% rate and had two kids since then is running out of bedrooms. The couple whose kids graduated and whose house is now too big for two people is paying property taxes on space they don’t need. The homeowner who got a job offer in another city is not going to turn it down to protect a mortgage rate.
Redfin’s survey data shows that among homeowners who cite their low rate as a reason not to sell, that reason ranks fifth. Well behind concerns about finding a new home, market uncertainty, financial readiness, and life circumstances. The lock-in was never the only thing keeping people in place. But it was the financial layer that tipped the calculus toward staying when life was ambiguous.
As that financial layer thins and as the penalty for moving shrinks from $500/month to $200/month to $50/month as rates converge and as high-rate homeowners swell the selling population, the ambiguous cases start breaking toward moving.
That’s the inventory story of 2026. Not a flood. A steady, structural thaw.
What This Means for Buyers: The Window Is Open, But It Won’t Stay Perfectly Positioned
Here’s the read I give every buyer who asks me whether now is the right time:
The best buying conditions in North Texas since 2019 exist right now, today, and they’re being driven by exactly the dynamics this article describes. More sellers. More inventory. Longer days on market. Seller concessions averaging 4–5% of purchase price. Rate buydowns of 100–200 basis points available from builders. A 30-year fixed rate with a “5” in front of it.
But here’s the Insider move: understand what changes when the lock-in effect finishes loosening.
When the share of low-rate homeowners shrinks further, when more of the 51.5% holding sub-4% rates eventually come to market over the next two to four years, what initially looks like more inventory will eventually look like more competition among buyers as well. More sellers entering the market brings more move-up buyers into the purchasing pool. More listings means more visibility for buyers who were previously sitting out. The market that currently favors patient buyers will shift as rate anxiety dissipates across the whole population.
The buyers who win in that scenario are the ones who locked in their position during the window, the 12–24 months when inventory was elevated, concessions were available, and seller urgency was real.
Then they refinance when rates drop further. ICE Mortgage Technology data estimates that at rates below 6%, nearly 5 million homeowners are “in the money” for a refinance. If rates reach the mid-5% range, a real possibility if economic conditions cooperate, that pool expands dramatically. The buyer who purchases today at 5.98% and refinances at 5.25% in 18 months paid a modest carrying cost to own an asset during one of the most buyer-favorable periods in years.
That’s the math. Marry the house, date the rate. It’s not a slogan, it’s a time tested strategy.
For North Texas buyers specifically, I’d flag these actionable realities right now:
New construction in Ellis County and the southern DFW corridor is offering the most aggressive incentives I’ve seen since before the pandemic. Builders; including Bloomfield Homes, Highland Homes, and Centre Living are all actively competing for buyers with rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and lot premiums rolled back. A builder who needs to move 40 homes in a quarter is motivated in ways that a homeowner with a 2.9% rate sitting on 12 years of appreciation just isn’t.
First-time buyer programs stack powerfully in this environment. The City of Fort Worth’s Homebuyer Assistance Program offers up to $25,000 in forgivable down payment assistance. TSAHC’s Home Sweet Texas program offers up to 5% in grant funding. Combine those with today’s rates and a seller concession on top, and a qualified first-time buyer can enter this market with dramatically less out-of-pocket than any calculator from two years ago would have projected.
My lender partners: Denise Donoghue at The Mortgage Nerd, Andrew Bryan at Miramar Mortgage, and Ethan Hester at Midtex Mortgage can model all of this for your specific situation. Get pre-approved. Understand your numbers. Then move with conviction.
What This Means for Sellers: The Time to Beat the Crowd Is Now
The most dangerous misread of this data is to look at the rising inventory trend and conclude that selling is getting harder. That’s backwards.
The lock-in effect fading means more eventual competition among sellers, not just more supply for buyers. If you’re planning to sell in 2026–2027, getting ahead of the structural inventory increase, listing before the wave and not into it is the strategic move.
Here’s the sequence. Right now: inventory is elevated but demand is recovering. Rates just broke below 6%. Purchase mortgage applications are running double digits above year-ago levels. Motivated buyers are entering the market in spring 2026 with more purchasing power than they had 12 months ago.
Six months from now, or 12 months from now, if rates continue drifting toward 5.5%, the sellers currently frozen by the lock-in effect will accelerate their decisions. More competition for your buyer’s attention. More negotiating pressure. Less urgency on their end.
The sellers who win in this environment are the ones who price right from day one, present their homes well, and list while the buyers are fresh and motivated rather than while they’re choosing from 35 listings in your neighborhood instead of 15.
The sellers who struggle are the ones who test the market in Q4 2026 after the full structural unlock has played out and the balance of negotiating power has shifted further toward buyers.
This is not a prediction of a crash. Real estate research centers project flat to modest appreciation in DFW for 2026, not decline. But the window of seller-favorable conditions, even relative seller-favorable conditions, is measured in months, not years.
The Bigger Pattern: What History Says Happens After Lock-In Breaks
The current dynamic has historical precedent, and it’s instructive.
After the early 1980s when 30-year mortgage rates peaked above 18% before falling through the late 1980s and 1990s, homeowners with locked-in high-rate mortgages gradually accumulated, then began selling as rates fell back toward their levels. The resulting inventory expansion contributed to years of transaction volume recovery and moderate price appreciation in most markets.
The parallel isn’t perfect. Today’s market has more structural demand drivers including population growth, demographic headwinds from millennials aging into peak homebuying years, and constrained new construction in many markets that just didn’t exist in the same form in the 1980s. But the directional pattern is similar: lock-in effects unwind gradually, inventory expands, transaction volume recovers, and the market finds a new equilibrium.
Redfin’s 2026 forecast projects existing home sales ending the year at approximately 4.2 million, up roughly 3% from 2025, with median prices rising only modestly. That’s not a boom. That’s a healing market. A market finding its legs after three years of artificial suppression.
North Texas will likely run ahead of that national curve, as it has throughout this and many other cycles. The fundamentals are here; population growth, corporate investment, infrastructure expansion, relative affordability against coastal markets. They won’t disappear simply because the rate environment is complicated.
They just wait. And they compound.
Frequently Asked Questions: Mortgage Rates, the Lock-In Effect, and the 2026 North Texas Housing Market
Is now a good time to sell my house in North Texas?
For a lot of homeowners, yes and the data backs that up. Fort Worth’s median home price held at $323,500 as of January 2026, a modest 0.5% year-over-year increase. More importantly, equity positions across North Texas remain historically strong. Nationally, 44.6% of mortgaged properties are classified as “equity-rich”, meaning the owner owes less than half the home’s estimated market value. That’s leverage you can work with.
The National Association of REALTORS® is forecasting a 14% increase in existing home sales for 2026. Buyer demand is recovering. The spring market is shaping up to be the most active in several years.
That said, this isn’t a universal answer. The right time to sell depends on your equity position, your timeline, and whether your current home still fits your life. What I can tell you is that spring 2026 market conditions are considerably more favorable for sellers than most people expected six months ago. If you’ve been waiting for the right window, this one is worth a serious conversation.
What does “the lock-in effect is fading” actually mean for homeowners?
Here’s the simplest version: for three years, millions of homeowners with 2%–3% mortgage rates refused to sell because moving meant trading a historically cheap mortgage for one that cost them $400–$500 more per month. So they stayed. Inventory dried up. The market seized.
That dynamic is changing. Redfin’s Q3 2025 analysis of FHFA data shows that 21.2% of mortgaged homeowners now carry a rate at or above 6%, more than the 20% who still hold rates below 3%. That crossover happened for the first time in five years. A growing share of homeowners simply don’t face a significant payment shock if they move. The financial trap is shrinking.
Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen put it well: the lock-in effect is still a factor and will be for years, but each day it fades a little bit.
What this means practically for you as a homeowner considering selling: more sellers are entering the market every quarter. The window where you’re competing against relatively few listings is open now. It won’t stay open at this width indefinitely.
What are mortgage rates right now, and where are they headed in 2026?
As of late February 2026, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed at 5.98% — the first sub-6% reading since September 2022. NerdWallet was showing averages around 5.87% APR in early March for well-qualified borrowers shopping the market aggressively.
Where are they going? The honest answer is that nobody knows for certain, but the consensus from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of REALTORS® puts 2026 rates in the 6.0%–6.1% range for most of the year, with a potential dip toward 5.7% in the most optimistic scenario and a ceiling around 6.5% if inflation surprises to the upside.
The important takeaway: a return to the 2%–3% pandemic rates is not in any serious forecast. The buyers who keep waiting for that number are making a decision based on a scenario that most housing economists don’t believe is coming.
Should I refinance my mortgage in 2026?
If your current rate is 6.5% or higher, it’s worth running the numbers right now. The general rule of thumb: a refinance makes financial sense when your monthly savings offset your closing costs within 24–36 months. Average refi closing costs run roughly $5,000–$6,000 depending on your loan size and lender.
Here’s a concrete example: refinancing a $300,000 balance from 7.0% down to 5.98% saves approximately $200/month in principal and interest. At $5,000 in closing costs, you break even in about 25 months. If you’re staying in the home three or more years, that’s real money.
Redfin reports refinance applications are up roughly 150% year-over-year as more borrowers in the 6.5%–7%+ range respond to the rate drop. The pipeline is already moving.
My recommendation: talk to at least three lenders before you commit. Rates and fee structures vary more than most homeowners realize. Denise Donoghue at The Mortgage Nerd, Andrew Bryan at Miramar Mortgage, and Ethan Hester at Midtex Mortgage can all model the break-even for your specific situation. Ask each of them about no-cost refinance options if you’re uncertain about your timeline.
How long does it take to sell a house in Fort Worth right now?
The average days on market in Fort Worth is running approximately 66–68 days as of early 2026. But that average covers a wide range of outcomes. Well-priced, move-in-ready homes in strong neighborhoods are still moving in 25–35 days. Overpriced or outdated listings are sitting 90 days and longer. Eventually taking price cuts that signal desperation to every buyer who walks through the door.
From listing to closing, factor in 12–17 weeks total when you account for pre-listing prep, active marketing, contract negotiation, and a standard 30–45 day escrow period.
The single biggest variable in your timeline is your list price on day one. Price it right and you capture motivated buyers in the first two weeks, the highest-traffic window of any listing. Test the market with an overly-optimistic price and you’ll spend those two weeks building days-on-market that buyers will use to negotiate you down later.
What is “marry the house, date the rate” and is it good advice?
The phrase means: buy the right home now, at today’s rate, with the plan to refinance when rates improve. The house is a long-term asset. The interest rate is a financing decision that can be revisited.
It’s sound advice, with one critical caveat that I want to be direct about. You should only buy a home you can comfortably afford at today’s rate, not a hypothetical future rate that isn’t guaranteed. Refinancing requires you to qualify again, pay closing costs again, and hope rates actually cooperate on your timeline. None of that is automatic.
What the phrase gets right: 5.98%–6.1% rates are not historically extreme. The 50-year average for the 30-year fixed is closer to 7.5%. Buyers who bought homes in the 1990s at 7%–8% built significant equity. The buyers who waited for a “normal” rate and never bought and never built any equity.
Buy when your finances, your life, and the market align. If two of those three are in place, the third is worth a serious conversation.
What credit score do I need to buy a house in 2026?
It depends on your loan type, but here’s the practical breakdown:
Conventional loans generally require a minimum 620 score, though borrowers above 680 qualify for meaningfully better rates and terms. FHA loans allow scores as low as 580 with 3.5% down, and as low as 500 with 10% down. VA loans don’t set an official minimum, though most lenders use overlays in the 580–620 range.
Here’s the number that actually matters: the gap between a 620 score and a 760+ score on a $350,000 mortgage can translate to tens of thousands of dollars in total interest paid over the life of the loan. Even a 30–40 point improvement can drop your rate by a meaningful amount.
If your credit needs work before you’re ready to buy, start now, not 30 days before you want to make an offer. I can connect you with lenders who will give you an honest assessment of where you stand and exactly what moves the needle fastest for your profile.
Are there down payment assistance programs for first-time buyers in Fort Worth?
Yes and this is where I see the most money left on the table by buyers who don’t know what’s available.
The City of Fort Worth’s Homebuyer Assistance Program (HAP) offers up to $25,000 in down payment and closing cost assistance for eligible first-time buyers purchasing within city limits. It’s structured as a forgivable loan, you just have to stay in the home for 10 years and it’s completely forgiven.
At the state level, the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs offers the My First Texas Home program: a 30-year fixed at below-market rates plus up to 5% in down payment assistance as a zero-interest deferred loan. The Texas State Affordable Housing Corporation offers up to 5% as an outright grant, money that never has to be repaid.
Stack those programs correctly with a Mortgage Credit Certificate (up to $2,000/year as a federal tax credit for the life of the loan) and the actual out-of-pocket cost of buying a first home in North Texas drops dramatically. Many qualified buyers are getting into homes with well under $10,000 out of pocket.
If you’ve been told you aren’t ready to buy, get a second opinion from someone who knows these programs.
Will home prices drop in Fort Worth or DFW in 2026?
The data points toward stabilization, not a significant drop. Fort Worth’s median price rose 0.5% year-over-year in January 2026. Tarrant County held flat. The NAR projects approximately 4% appreciation nationally for 2026 as sales volume rebounds.
Parts of the broader DFW metro, including certain segments of Collin and Denton counties, have seen modest year-over-year declines in the 4%–5% range, reflecting a normalization after the unsustainable appreciation of 2020–2022. That’s a correction of excess, not a distress signal.
ATTOM’s latest equity report confirms that while the share of equity-rich properties has edged down from its peak, homeowner equity nationwide remains far above pre-pandemic levels. This looks like a soft landing, not a collapse.
My read on the Ellis County and southern DFW corridor specifically: the fundamentals; population growth, job creation, infrastructure investment, relative affordability are all intact. Flat to modest appreciation is the most likely outcome for 2026. Individual results will vary by neighborhood, price point, and condition of the specific property.
Do I have to pay capital gains tax when I sell my house?
For most homeowners, no and here’s why.
The Section 121 exclusion allows single filers to exclude up to $250,000 of gain from the sale of a primary residence, and married couples filing jointly can exclude up to $500,000, provided you’ve owned and used the home as your primary residence for at least two of the past five years. The exclusion can generally be used once every two years.
Gains above those thresholds are subject to long-term capital gains tax at rates of 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on your taxable income. The $250,000/$500,000 thresholds remain in place as of 2026.
This is one area where I’ll always tell you: talk to a qualified tax professional before you list. The rules are straightforward in most cases but have meaningful nuances depending on your specific situation. How long you’ve owned the property, whether you’ve ever rented it out and your overall income picture. Get the right advice before you close, not after.
How have real estate agent commissions changed since the NAR settlement?
Significantly and the changes are worth understanding whether you’re buying or selling.
The NAR settlement that took effect in 2024 ended the practice of listing buyer-agent compensation on MLS systems. Compensation is now negotiated directly between buyers, sellers, and their respective brokers. Buyers must sign a written representation agreement before touring homes, clearly outlining how their agent will be compensated. Commission amounts are fully negotiable, there is no standard rate, and federal law prohibits any form of price-fixing.
One year post-settlement, the average total commission nationally hovered around 5.4%, with the split between listing agent and buyer’s agent varying by market and individual agreement.
The practical takeaway: transparency has increased, and every dollar in a transaction is now more visible. For buyers, this means knowing upfront exactly what you’re paying for representation and having the ability to negotiate it. For sellers, this means understanding that offering buyer-agent compensation is still an option and often a strategic one that drives more showings and stronger offers.
Working with an agent who understands these changes clearly is more important now than it’s ever been.
What is the Texas homestead exemption, and how much does it save me?
The Texas homestead exemption reduces the taxable value of your primary residence for property tax purposes and after voter-approved changes in 2025, it got more valuable.
The mandatory school district homestead exemption increased from $100,000 to $140,000 for most homeowners. Homeowners aged 65 or older or with qualifying disabilities receive an additional $60,000 school exemption, bringing their total school district exemption to $200,000.
On a $400,000 home with a combined tax rate around 2%, the general homestead exemption saves roughly $2,800 per year. Homestead properties are also protected by a 10% annual cap on increases to their assessed value which means even when market values spike, your tax bill can’t follow in one dramatic jump.
To claim it, you need to file a homestead application with your county appraisal district, typically by April 30 for the current tax year. If you’ve purchased a home in North Texas in the last 12 months and haven’t filed, do it now. You’re leaving money on the table every day you wait.
What are seller concessions, and should I offer them?
Seller concessions are financial contributions from the seller to help a buyer cover closing costs, prepaid expenses, or(my favorite option) interest rate buydowns. In 2026, more than half of sellers nationally are expected to offer some form of concession as the market moves toward balance.
The most powerful option right now is the 2-1 temporary rate buydown: the seller funds a reduction of 2 percentage points in the buyer’s rate for year one, and 1 point in year two. On a 6% loan, that means the buyer pays 4% in year one and 5% in year two before the rate normalizes. The first-year payment savings can run $400/month or more, which matters enormously to a payment-sensitive buyer who is on the fence.
Here’s the strategic insight most sellers miss: a well-structured buydown frequently feels more compelling to a buyer than an equivalent price reduction. A $10,000 price cut saves a buyer about $50/month. That same $10,000 deployed as a buydown fund saves them $400/month in year one. The math moves differently in their minds and in their qualifying numbers.
Conventional loan limits on concessions: typically up to 3% of the purchase price for down payments under 10%, up to 6% for 10%–25% down, and up to 9% for 25% or more. Your lender and your agent should be coordinating on this before you list.
Is it a buyer’s or seller’s market in DFW right now?
Balanced and trending further toward buyers, though not uniformly across the metro.
DFW inventory is running at roughly 2.8–3.2 months of supply. A true balanced market is 4–6 months, so we’re still slightly tilted toward sellers, but the gap has closed dramatically from the sub-two-month levels of 2021–2022. One late-February 2026 weekly market snapshot showed 7,526 new listings, 4,720 pending sales, and 8,220 price reductions in a single week, that last number tells you exactly what happens when sellers test the market with optimistic pricing.
The honest answer is that the market condition depends enormously on your price point, your neighborhood, and the specific condition of the property. In certain Ellis County submarkets, particularly well-located new construction in the $300,000–$450,000 range, motivated buyers are still competing. In overpriced legacy listings sitting above market, buyers have significant leverage and they know it.
The market is not one thing. It’s a thousand micro-markets. Knowing which one you’re operating in, and pricing and positioning accordingly, is the difference between a smooth transaction and a painful one.
That’s what a good agent is actually for.
The Bottom Line: This Is the Inflection Point
The number that matters isn’t today’s mortgage rate. The number that matters is the one BAM Media posted on Instagram this week: 21.2% above 6%, 20.0% below 3%. The crossover.
Because that crossover represents a psychological and financial permission slip for millions of homeowners who have been telling themselves they can’t move. It doesn’t flip the market overnight. But it changes the trajectory. It bends the curve. It starts a process that, over the next 12–24 months, will bring more sellers into this market than we’ve seen since before the pandemic, which means more inventory, more competition, and a more normalized transaction environment.
For buyers: that normalization means more choices now, but less negotiating leverage later. The time to lock in position; whether in a specific neighborhood, in a specific price range, with builder incentives or seller concessions, is measured in mere months.
For sellers: that normalization means getting ahead of the structural supply increase, not chasing it. List strategically. Price accurately. Capture the motivated spring 2026 buyer pool before the full unlock accelerates.
For homeowners sitting on the fence: the lock-in effect that justified waiting is mathematically shrinking every quarter. The next FHFA data drop will show Q4 2025 numbers that almost certainly show the 6%+ share climbing further and the sub-3% share declining further. The trend line has been unbroken for 12 consecutive quarters.
At some point, waiting stops being a strategy and starts being a decision made for you by time.
The North Texas Market Insider exists for one reason: to give you the intelligence to make decisions before the market makes them for you. This is that intelligence.
If you want to understand what this shift means for your specific situation, whether you’re buying, selling, or holding, schedule a free consult. Let’s run the numbers and make the move that puts you ahead of it.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. All real estate transactions should be conducted with licensed professionals who understand your individual circumstances. This content is original and uniquely tailored to the North Texas real estate market. Commission amounts and structures must always be independently determined and individually negotiated in compliance with federal and state antitrust laws, the Fair Housing Act, RESPA, the NAR Code of Ethics, and Texas Real Estate Commission advertising rules.
Bobby Franklin, REALTOR® | Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team
📲 214-228-0003 | northtexasmarketinsider.com
Join The Discussion