What I’ve Been Predicting is Finally Here – And Here’s What It Means for Smart Buyers and Sellers
By Bobby Franklin, REALTOR® – Your North Texas Market Intelligence Source
What I’ve been predicting for months just got official confirmation from Waxahachie ISD’s Chief Financial Officer Ryan Kahlden.
The numbers don’t lie: Ellis County isn’t just growing, it’s exploding.
The Intelligence Report: What the Data Actually Reveals
Here’s what caught my attention in Kahlden’s Q2 demographic update, and why it should matter to anyone thinking about real estate in North Texas:
Waxahachie ISD’s remarkable growth patterns directly impact the local housing market:
- 1,500 students added over the past three years
- Nearly 2,000 more students expected over the next three years
- Projections reaching over 17,000 students by the early 2030s
Translation: Families are voting with their feet, and they’re choosing Ellis County.
The Development Pipeline That’s About to Change Everything
While other markets are slowing down, here’s what’s actively happening in my backyard:
- Nearly 1,200 lots available to build on immediately
- Another 1,170 lots under development
- 40 actively-building subdivisions within WISD boundaries
- 27 future planned subdivisions in planning stages
- Groundwork underway on 1,169 lots within subdivisions
This isn’t speculation, this is institutional investment signaling long-term community development and stability.(WISD Report)
Why Ellis County is DFW’s Best-Kept Secret (But Not For Long)
The Strategic Positioning That Smart Money Recognizes
Dallas-Fort Worth secured the #1 spot as America’s hottest real estate market for 2025. Five of the nation’s top 10 real estate markets for 2025 are within DFW. (DFW Hottest Market)
But here’s what most people miss:
Ellis County is offering “premium North Texas access at a 40% discount compared to hyped markets.”
The numbers that matter:
- $400K median in Ellis County vs $600K+ in established DFW suburbs
- 30 minutes to downtown Dallas
- 3.9% unemployment rate (economic stability you can count on)
- Strong school district reputation attracting families
THE INTELLIGENCE:
• WISD adding 2,000+ students in next 3 years (that’s 700+ new families)
• 1,200 buildable lots available RIGHT NOW
• 40 active subdivisions + 27 more in development
• Property values up 128% in last 10 years
• Population jumping from 55K to 85K by 2050
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU:
If you’re thinking “maybe next year” for buying in Waxahachie… next year might be too late.
When school districts are planning for 67% student growth, that’s not speculation – that’s INFRASTRUCTURE following DEMAND.
THE REALITY CHECK:
Average home prices hitting $431K now, projected $540K-$620K by 2030. That’s not just appreciation – that’s wealth building happening in real time.
The Market Reality Check: What Sellers Need to Know Right Now
I’m going to give it to you straight because that’s what you hired me for:
Current Market Conditions (Fall 2025):
- Homes selling for about 95% of list price
- Average time on market: 63 days (giving buyers more negotiating power)
- Inventory up 20% year-over-year
- Cancellations up 42% (translation: price it right or sit on the market)
But here’s the opportunity: Multiple offers still common in new construction and high-demand areas. The key is strategic positioning and realistic pricing.
The Questions I’m Getting (And the Answers That Matter)
“Bobby, is now a good time to sell in Ellis County?”
Absolutely, if you understand the current market dynamics. We’re not in the feeding frenzy of 2021-2022, but we’re also not in a crash. We’re in a strategic market where informed sellers who price correctly and present well are still getting solid results.
“Should I wait for interest rates to drop?”
Mortgage rates around 6.25%, the lowest point in 2025, with forecasts expecting further decreases in 2026. But here’s what I tell my clients: you marry the house, you date the rate. Ellis County’s fundamentals are strong regardless of rate fluctuations.(Current Mortgage Rates)
“How does school growth affect my property value?”
When school enrollment jumps like this, it’s a clear signal of sustained demand. School growth ensures stable buyer interest and upward pressure on home values, especially in neighborhoods feeding into new schools.
The Regulatory Landscape: What Changed and Why It Matters
NAR Settlement Impact: The New Rules of the Game
The National Association of REALTORS® $418 million settlement changed everything:
- Written agreements required before home tours
- Commission terms must be clear and fully negotiable
- No more preset commissions on MLS listings
- Average buyer’s agent commission: 2.4%
What this means for you: More transparency, more negotiation, and the need for an agent who understands the new landscape.
Looking Ahead: The Ellis County Advantage
Population Projections That Drive Real Estate Demand
- Waxahachie forecast to grow from 55,825 in 2025 to 64,017 by 2030(Hachie 2030)
- Infrastructure improvements like Loop 9 boosting accessibility
- Continued corporate relocations driving population growth
The Strategic Communities to Watch
Waxahachie: Historic downtown charm with Victorian architecture and walkable amenities
Midlothian: Top-rated schools with family-friendly parks and events
Ennis: Home of the Bluebonnet Trails Festival with blend of old and new homes
My Market Prediction: Why This Window Won’t Stay Open
Here’s what I’m seeing that others are missing: Ellis County is in that sweet spot where fundamentals are strong, prices are still reasonable, and development is accelerating. But windows like this don’t stay open forever.
The smart money is moving now before the rest of the market catches up.
Corporate relocations are continuing to drive population growth. Regional inventory is at 20-year highs, providing buyer opportunities. Ellis County is in a competitive position for maximum appreciation as DFW continues expanding outward.
The Bottom Line: Strategic Opportunity Meets Market Reality
Whether you’re buying or selling, success in today’s Ellis County market requires three things:
- Market Intelligence: Understanding the data behind the decisions
- Strategic Timing: Knowing when to move and when to wait
- Expert Execution: Working with someone who lives and breathes this market
I’ve been tracking these trends, building these relationships, and predicting these patterns because that’s what it takes to serve my clients at the highest level.
Ready to explore how these market dynamics affect your specific situation? Let’s talk strategy.
📊 Your North Texas market intel source
🎯 Text 214-228-0003 for insider updates
Bobby Franklin – REALTOR®
Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team
Serving Ellis County & DFW
This analysis represents original market research and professional insights designed to provide maximum value to North Texas buyers and sellers. All information provided in strict compliance with Fair Housing Act, RESPA regulations, and NAR ethical standards.
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