By Bobby Franklin, REALTOR® | North Texas Market Insider | February 2026
I’ve been watching this development work its way through Waxahachie City Council for nine months. Nine months of planning meetings, public hearings, infrastructure debates, and back-and-forth between Minto Communities USA and city leadership. And on January 28, 2026, in a 3-to-2 vote that generated more buzz in Ellis County real estate circles than anything I’ve seen since the Ferris project, it passed.
Here’s what that means for you: the largest residential development ever approved in Waxahachie’s history; 3,170 acres, 13,270 homes, 1.2 million square feet of commercial space, and a projected 33,902 new residents, is now officially coming to the I-35E corridor south of Dallas. If you own a home here, if you’re thinking about buying here, or if you’ve been sitting on the fence wondering whether Ellis County is the play in 2026, this article is your intelligence briefing.
I’m not going to hype this. I’m not going to fear-monger either. What I’m going to do is give you the same analysis I give my clients, the kind of market intelligence that most agents don’t even know to look for. Let’s break this thing down.
What Exactly Got Approved on January 28, 2026?
Coconut Creek, Florida-based Minto Communities USA received city council zoning approval for a mixed-use development on 3,170 acres located west of I-35E, south of FM 875, north of FM 1446, and east of Lone Elm Road. The land is primarily agricultural right now and is owned by Arizona-based land asset manager Walton Global, Minto holds a purchase agreement.
The approved plan allows up to 13,270 dwelling units: 11,880 single-family homes and 1,390 multifamily and mixed-use units. That’s double the number of single-family homes that would have been permitted under the land’s prior zoning. Construction is projected to begin mid-2026 with a multi-year buildout. Let me be direct: this is not a subdivision. This is a self-contained city being built inside a city.
Here’s what the approved plans include:
- 13,270 homes spanning single-family detached homes, villas, cottages, townhomes, and apartments
- 1,400 multi-family units including age-restricted 55+ active-adult neighborhoods
- A full town center with retail, dining, and professional services
- An adventure park modeled after Minto’s successful Westlake Adventure Park in Florida
- 400 acres of open space and parks connected by an extensive trail network
- 1.2 million square feet of mixed-use commercial space
- A middle school and multiple elementary schools built within the community
- Civic spaces and community services
Read the full press release from Minto here: https://www.minto.com/usa/new-homes/news/minto-communities-usa-developing-multigenerational-community-in-waxahachie-texas~137_2979.html
The council vote was Tres Adkins, Chris Wright, and Travis Smith in favor; Mayor Billie Wallace and Mayor Pro Tem Patrick Souter against. The opposition’s concerns were real, I’ll address them directly later in this article because they matter to your decision-making, but the project is approved and the buildout clock has started.
Who Is Minto Communities USA and Should You Trust Them?
This is the first question every serious buyer and seller should ask about any major developer, and it’s where the Minto story gets interesting. Minto Group is a Canadian real estate company founded in 1955. This is not some random startup or a speculative land flipper. They have built more than 100,000 homes across North America and currently manage $2.9 billion in assets. Their American division, Minto Communities USA, has been operating in Florida since 1978 and has delivered more than 25,000 homes across 48 communities.
Their most comparable project? Westlake in Palm Beach County, Florida, a 3,800-acre master-planned community with capacity for 6,500 homes that has consistently ranked on RCLCO’s Top 50 Master-Planned Communities list in the United States. Westlake is now one of the fastest-growing cities in all of Florida, with a population nearing 7,000 and a $22 million adventure park as its centerpiece amenity.
Minto is also the developer behind the nationally recognized Latitude Margaritaville brand of 55+ communities in Daytona Beach, Panama City Beach, and Hilton Head. Four of their five master-planned communities landed on the RCLCO Top 50 list. When a developer of this caliber, with a proven track record at this scale, commits to your market, that’s not marketing. That’s institutional validation.
Here’s the intel most agents won’t tell you: Minto didn’t stumble onto Waxahachie. They identified the I-35E corridor as a generational growth opportunity after extensive due diligence. When sophisticated institutional capital chooses a market, they’ve already done the analysis the retail market hasn’t caught up to yet. That’s your signal.
What This Means for Home Values: The Real Story
What does this mean for home values in Waxahachie? This is the question I get most often, and it deserves a straight answer grounded in data, not hype and not panic. Let me give you both sides.
Where Waxahachie Stands Right Now
Here’s a quick snapshot of the current market heading into 2026:
| Metric | Current Data |
|---|---|
| Average Home Value (Zillow) | $361,763 |
| 1-Year Price Change(24′-25′) | -1.9% |
| Median Sale Price (Redfin) | $378,000 |
| Average Days on Market | 44–89 days |
| Ellis County Average Home Value | $363,888 |
| Median Household Income | $82,449 |
That -1.9% year-over-year dip is consistent with the broader DFW normalization after the 2021–2022 frenzy. But here’s the context most agents won’t give you: property values in Waxahachie have climbed approximately 128% over the last decade. Short-term dips in a decade-long appreciation story are noise. The signal is the trajectory.
The Case for Long-Term Appreciation
Large-scale master-planned communities from reputable developers have a documented track record of lifting surrounding property values over time. Here’s why this one should be no different:
Infrastructure upgrades that benefit the broader area. New roads, utilities, and commercial access points don’t stop at the development boundary. Surrounding neighborhoods absorb those benefits.
Tax revenue that funds what actually drives home values. The Minto project is projected to generate $42.2 million annually for the City of Waxahachie and $56 million for Waxahachie ISD from a $4.8 billion tax base. Schools and public services are the two most powerful long-term drivers of residential values and this development funds both.
7,500+ permanent jobs. New employment centers reduce commute dependency and attract households that need existing housing while new construction comes online.
Institutional confidence as a market signal. Texas is already the leading state for master-planned community sales, hosting 20 of the top 50 best-selling communities in America in 2025, according to RCLCO. The Minto project fits directly into proven demand architecture.
The Honest Counterpoints
I’d be doing you a disservice if I only gave you the bullish case. Here’s what you need to watch:
Short-term inventory competition. 13,270 new homes entering the market over the buildout period will create more competition for existing sellers, particularly in the entry-level and mid-range segments. Pricing strategy will matter more than ever.
Infrastructure strain is a real conversation. Ellis County has documented growing pains. The Waxahachie Wastewater Treatment Plant has been working to expand capacity, and local stakeholders have raised legitimate concerns about whether water, sewer, and drainage systems can keep pace with the rate of growth.
Loop 9 is still a future, not a present. The proposed Loop 9 (a 30-mile highway on the southern DFW fringe) will dramatically enhance connectivity when built. But construction timelines remain funding-dependent, and “eventually” doesn’t help your commute today.
Waxahachie vs. The Rest of DFW: Is This Still a Value Play?
Let me put some numbers on the table, because the value proposition here is one of the strongest in the entire Metroplex:
| City | Median Home Price | Key Draw |
|---|---|---|
| Waxahachie | ~$361,000–$378,000 | Historic charm, affordability, growth trajectory |
| Midlothian | ~$350,000–$475,000 | Top-rated schools, family-friendly |
| Celina | ~$450,000–$550,000 | Rapid growth, planned community feel |
| Prosper | ~$600,000+ | Premium schools, established community |
| Frisco | ~$721,000 | Luxury, corporate HQs, mature market |
Waxahachie is approximately 40% cheaper than established northern DFW suburbs like Frisco, with 30-minute access to downtown Dallas via I-35E. Ongoing highway improvements, including the Southern Gateway project and I-35E widening, are shortening effective commute times further.
The school district adds serious weight to this equation. Waxahachie ISD has already broken ground on Waxahachie Creek High School, a 520,000 square-foot campus designed for 3,200 students, set to open fall 2027. Voter-approved bond projects are delivering new elementary schools, junior high renovations, and expanded CTE programs. For families evaluating North Texas suburbs, this level of proactive educational investment is a serious differentiator.
What Current Homeowners Need to Know Before They List
If you already own in Waxahachie or Ellis County, the Minto approval creates both urgency and opportunity and the distinction matters depending on your timeline.
Current market conditions show homes selling at approximately 95% of list price with average days on market of 63 days. This is a balanced market, not the frenzied seller’s market of 2021–2022, but not a distressed environment either. Sellers who price realistically and present well are often achieving solid results.
The strategic window for sellers is real. The Minto buildout will take years. Buyers relocating to the area in anticipation of the new community; construction workers, future commercial tenants, families wanting to establish roots before new schools open, will need to take advantage of existing housing while new homes are being built. That’s your first-mover advantage.
3 Things Every Waxahachie Seller Needs To Know In 2026:
Price to current reality, not peak memory. Cancellation rates rise sharply when homes are overpriced relative to current comparable sales. The 2022 pricing ceiling is a historical anomaly, not today’s market.
The new commission landscape changed everything. Following the NAR settlement that took effect August 17, 2024, commission structures are fully negotiable and buyers must sign written representation agreements before touring homes. Working with an agent who understands these rules isn’t optional, it’s essential.
Proximity to the development is a feature, not a footnote. Access to future amenities, commercial services, improved infrastructure, and a major employment center benefits surrounding neighborhoods. Lead with that in your marketing narrative.
The Bigger Picture: Why Is Ellis County Growing This Fast?
Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the fastest-growing metro in the United States. DFW was ranked the #1 hottest real estate market in America for 2025, and population forecasts project the Metroplex will reach approximately 10 million people by 2040. As northern suburbs like Frisco and Prosper approach build-out with median home prices exceeding $600,000–$721,000, growth is rapidly shifting southward along the I-35E corridor into Ellis County.
Waxahachie’s population has grown by nearly 17% since the 2020 census and is projected to continue at approximately 3% annually. The addition of 33,900 potential residents through the Minto community would accelerate this dramatically, transforming Waxahachie from a mid-size county seat into one of the larger cities in the entire DFW Metroplex.
And Minto isn’t the only institutional move in this market. The $800 million acquisition of 11 Texas master-planned communities by Starwood Capital Group from Hines, including Myrtle Creek right here in Waxahachie, further validates the long-term thesis.
Here’s the full development pipeline context:
| Development | Acres | Homes | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minto MPC | 3,170 | 13,270 | Approved January 2026 |
| Myrtle Creek (Starwood/Hines) | 1,263 | 2,500 | Active development |
| 40+ active subdivisions | Various | 1,200+ lots | Building now |
| 27 future subdivisions | Various | 1,170+ lots | Planning stages |
What About Schools? The WISD Capacity Question Answered
I hear this question constantly from families, and it’s the right question to ask. Here’s the honest answer: Waxahachie ISD is already in active growth mode, and the trajectory of investment is strong.
The district currently serves over 11,000 students and has been growing rapidly, adding 1,500 students over the past three years alone. The May 2023 voter-approved bond is already delivering:
- Waxahachie Creek High School – 520,000 SF campus for 3,200 students, opening fall 2027
- Two new elementary campuses already opened (Jimmy Ray Elementary and Wilemon STEAM Academy)
- Three junior high renovations expanding capacity to 1,200 students each
Critically, the Minto development includes plans for a middle school and multiple elementary schools built within the community as the population grows, rather than burden the existing campuses from day one. The projected $56 million in annual property tax revenue for WISD from the development’s $4.8 billion tax base represents a transformative funding infusion for the district.
What Buyers Need to Ask Before Jumping In
If the Minto community, or any of the major active developments across Ellis County, is on your radar, here are the questions I walk every one of my clients through:
What is the projected build-out timeline? Multi-year buildouts mean years of construction activity, dust, and evolving road access. Understand what “phase one completion” looks like versus the full vision.
What are the HOA fees, and what exactly do they cover? Master-planned communities carry HOA assessments that fund amenity maintenance, landscaping, and community management. Get specifics, not estimates.
What is the blended property tax rate? Texas has no state income tax, but property tax rates in Ellis County can range from 2.3% to 2.8% depending on location and applicable district overlays. Some outlier communities are as low as 2.05%. Run the math on annual carrying costs before falling in love with a price point.
Which builders will participate, and at what price points? Minto has not yet announced specific pricing or whether outside builders will participate in the Waxahachie project. This information should emerge as the mid-2026 construction start approaches.
What is the school zone assignment? With new schools being built within the community, district rezoning is very likely and will most certainly affect resale values. Confirm current assignments and ask about planned changes before making decisions.
How is infrastructure being funded? Ask specifically about MUD designations, this project went through standard city zoning, not a MUD, which gives Waxahachie significantly more oversight and control over density and design standards.
Mortgage Rates in 2026: The Affordability Window
As of early 2026, mortgage rates have improved to approximately 5.99%, the best financing environment since early 2023. Forecasts project rates could trend between 5.7% and 6.1% through the year. Combined with the slight 1.4%–1.9% price correction in Ellis County, affordability metrics are materially better than they were in 2024–2025.
For buyers in the $325,000–$370,000 range, which is squarely within Waxahachie’s sweet spot, the improved rate environment translates into meaningful monthly payment savings compared to 2023’s 7%+ rates. Texas also offers state assistance programs through the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs that can provide $15,000–$50,000+ in down payment assistance and closing cost support for qualifying buyers.
The Economic Engine: What 13,000 Homes Actually Generates
Beyond housing, here’s the projected economic footprint of the Minto development:
| Economic Metric | Projected Figure |
|---|---|
| Annual revenue for City of Waxahachie | $42.2 million |
| Annual revenue for Waxahachie ISD | $56 million |
| Real property tax base | $4.8 billion |
| Construction jobs (sustained buildout) | 2,080 |
| Permanent jobs created | 7,500+ |
| Commercial space | 1.2 million sq ft |
| Projected new residents | 33,902 |
For context: those tax revenue projections would represent a transformative infusion for a city currently sized around 48,600–52,100 residents. Add the new Sprouts-anchored retail center under construction and the 575-acre South Grove industrial park, and Waxahachie’s economic profile is shifting from bedroom community to diversified economic hub at a pace I haven’t seen in years of watching this corridor develop.
The Bottom Line: Your Intelligence Briefing
For current Waxahachie homeowners: Your property sits directly in the path of significant, sustained growth. Long-term appreciation fundamentals are anchored by school district investment, infrastructure improvements, institutional developer confidence, and a massive influx of new residents and jobs. If you’re considering selling, the next 12–24 months offer a strategic window before new construction inventory comes fully online and increases seller competition.
For prospective buyers: Waxahachie offers one of the strongest value propositions in the entire DFW Metroplex right now, premium North Texas access at a 40% discount to established northern suburbs, with a growth trajectory that supports long-term equity building. Whether you buy in an existing neighborhood or decide to wait for the Minto community to open, acting while prices remain in the $325,000–$378,000 range and rates are still under 6% positions you ahead of the demand curve.
For real estate investors: The combination of population growth projections, institutional developer activity across Minto, Starwood Capital, and Highland Homes, paired with infrastructure spending on Loop 9, I-35E widening, and the WISD bond program, creates a compelling long-term rental and appreciation case in Ellis County.
My read? The 3-2 vote tells you this development generated real debate, and real debate usually means real significance. The concerns about infrastructure are legitimate and worth monitoring. But the fundamentals here are hard to argue with: a proven developer, a market with documented demographic momentum, institutional capital validation, and an affordable access point drawing buyers out of high-cost northern suburbs at an accelerating pace.
This is exactly the kind of development I track before it becomes mainstream news, because by the time it’s mainstream, the strategic advantage is gone. If you want to talk through what this means for your specific situation in Waxahachie, Midlothian, Ennis, or anywhere along the I-35E corridor, reach out directly.
For more information on purchasing new construction homes, check out our: Building/Buying Process page
Bobby Franklin, REALTOR®
Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team
📲 214-228-0003 | northtexasmarketinsider.com
Financing options available through:
Denise Donoghue – The Mortgage Nerd
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This article contains original market analysis and is published in compliance with the Fair Housing Act, RESPA, and the NAR Code of Ethics. All compensation structures referenced reflect post-August 2024 NAR settlement guidelines. Community descriptions are based on publicly available municipal records, developer press releases, and verified third-party data sources. Housing availability is presented without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability, or familial status.
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