September 2025 North Texas Market Analysis
While other agents are still checking their phones for rate updates, I’ve been tracking the real story behind these numbers. Here’s what’s actually happening in our North Texas market and why this could be the most critical 90 days for buyers and sellers in North Texas.
The Real Question Isn’t “When Will Rates Drop”, It’s “What Are You Going to DO About It?”
Everyone’s asking when rates will hit the magic number. Wrong question. Current rates sitting around 6.50% represent the lowest we’ve seen in nearly 12 months. The Fed’s signaling cuts ahead, with smart money betting on sub-6% by late 2026. But here’s the thing, waiting for perfect is the enemy of profitable. (Mortgage Rate 11 month Low)
In my years of watching North Texas markets, I’ve seen too many buyers chase the “perfect rate” right into higher home prices. It’s like waiting for the perfect wave while the tide comes in around your ankles.
The Buy Now vs. Wait Dilemma (Spoiler: The Math Doesn’t Lie)
Let me break this down with FACTS, not feelings:
Scenario A: Buy today at 6.50%
- Lock in current home prices
- Start building equity immediately
- Avoid the feeding frenzy when rates hit 5.5%
- Refinance later when rates drop (and they will)
Scenario B: Wait for “better” rates
- Home prices continue climbing (we’re seeing 3-5% annual appreciation in Ellis County)
- Face increased competition from sidelined buyers
- Risk missing your ideal property
- Pay more for the same house six months from now(Home Price Index)
The Franklin Move: Control what you can control. You can’t control the Fed, but you CAN control when you enter the market.
Your Monthly Savings Calculator (Because Numbers Don’t Lie)
When rates move from 6.5% to 6.0%, here’s your real monthly impact:
- $200K loan: $65/month savings ($780 annually)
- $300K loan: $98/month savings ($1,171 annually)
- $400K loan: $130/month savings ($1,561 annually)
- $500K loan: $163/month savings ($1,951 annually)
But here’s what most agents won’t tell you, if you wait six months and home prices increase 3%, you’ve potentially lost those savings to higher purchase prices.
The Refinance Reality Check
The magic number? A 0.75% rate drop typically justifies refinancing.(When to Refinance) Even 0.5% can work for shorter loan terms or higher balances. But here’s my insider take:
Don’t refinance for rates alone.
Refinance for STRATEGY. Maybe you want to pull cash out for that investment property in Midlothian or maybe you want to switch from adjustable to fixed. Maybe you want to shorten your term and build equity faster.
The break-even calculation is simple: Closing costs ÷ monthly savings = months to recoup investment.
Rate Lock Strategy (The “Nanosecond Assessment” Approach)
When your offer gets accepted in this market, you lock immediately if rates are attractive. Period. End of discussion.
I’ve watched too many deals fall apart because buyers tried to time the market down to the basis point. Rate locks typically run 30-60 days. Use them. The market doesn’t care about your perfect rate dreams.
The Year-Over-Year Reality Check
September 2024: 6.35%
September 2025: 6.50%
We’re talking about 0.15% higher than last year, basically noise level, and we’re STILL well below those brutal 7%+ rates we saw at the peak.(Freddie Mac)
Perspective check: If 0.15% is keeping you out of the market, you’re not ready to buy anyway.
Bottom Line Intel (The Bobby Franklin Take)
Here’s what I’m telling my VIP clients in Ellis County:
For Buyers: This is your window. Not perfect, but GOOD. And good enough beats perfect too late every single time. The fundamentals in our market are solid: job growth, infrastructure development (hello, South Creek Ranch), and inventory that’s finally stabilizing.
For Current Homeowners: Start the refinance conversation at 0.5% savings, pull the trigger at 0.75%. Don’t wait for the “perfect” rate that may never come.
For Everyone: Stop trying to time the market and start timing your LIFE. Need more space? Buy it. Want to downsize? Sell it. Ready to invest? Do it.
The market rewards action, not analysis paralysis.
Ready to make your move while others are still watching from the sidelines?
Text me at 214-228-0003 for my exclusive North Texas Rate Alert system. I’ll notify you the moment rates hit your target, and more importantly, I’ll show you properties that make sense at ANY rate.
Because in this market, information isn’t just power, it’s profit.
📊 Your North Texas market intel source
🎯 Text 214-228-0003 for insider updates
Bobby Franklin – REALTOR®
Legacy Realty Group – Leslie Majors Team
Serving Ellis County & DFW
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